2020 NBA Playoffs: Celtics vs. Heat odds, picks, Game 5 predictions from model on 61-33 roll

The Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat meet up in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Friday evening. Miami holds a 3-1 series lead after a win in Game 4, leaving Boston in a must-win situation. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been the driving forces for Miami in the postseason, but it was reserve guard Tyler Herro who stunned Boston with 37 points in the Game 4 victory, putting Miami one win away from reaching the NBA Finals.

Tip-off for Game 5 is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET at AdventHealth Arena inside the Orlando bubble. The latest Celtics vs. Heat odds from William Hill list Boston as the 3.5-point favorite, while the over-under for total points is 213. Before making any Heat vs. Celtics picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Heat vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Heat spread: Celtics -3.5
  • Celtics vs. Heat over-under: 213 points
  • Celtics vs. Heat money line: Celtics -165, Heat +145
  • BOS: The Celtics are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Celtics can cover

The Celtics are in a desperate position, but they have the talent and pedigree to bounce back. Boston is the No. 2 defensive team in the playoffs, allowing only 1.05 points per possession, and the Celtics lead the postseason in shooting efficiency allowed to their opponents. Brad Stevens’ team is also very strong in specific defensive situations, allowing only 9.7 fast-break points and 38.7 points in the paint per game. 

Boston is known for its perimeter defense, but the Celtics are also protecting the rim well in the playoffs, ranking fourth in the NBA in blocking 5.1 shots per game. Offensively, the Celtics have a ton of firepower, headlined by 25.5 points, 10.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game for Jayson Tatum in the playoffs. Boston ranks in the top five in free-throw rate, and it has multiple scoring options to assist Tatum, including Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward

Why the Heat can cover

The Heat not only hold a 3-1 series lead, but Miami owns the best record in the 2020 NBA Playoffs at 11-2. The Heat have been a prolific offensive team in Orlando, scoring at a clip of 1.13 points per possession. Miami ranks in the top two in assist rate (65.6 percent), assist-to-turnover ratio (1.8 to 1) and free-throw rate in the playoffs, with a top-five mark in overall shooting efficiency. 

Defensively, the Heat are also stingy, especially when deploying Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala in front of Adebayo. Miami ranks in the top five in both shooting efficiency allowed and turnover creation, with the fourth-best mark in the playoffs in steals per game (7.9). 

How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with Tatum and Goran Dragic projected to exceed their season-long scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Heat vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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