2020 NBA Playoffs: Lakers vs. Nuggets odds, picks, Game 4 predictions from model on 61-33 roll

LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers look to maintain control against Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Thursday. The Lakers won the first two games, with the Nuggets winning Game 3 on Tuesday to set up an opportunity for Denver to potentially even the series in Game 4. Will Barton (knee) remains out of action for the Nuggets on Thursday. For the Lakers, James (groin), Danny Green (finger) and Alex Caruso (wrist) are listed as probable, with Dion Waiters (groin) listed as doubtful.

Tip-off in this 2020 NBA Playoffs matchup is at 9 p.m. ET in the Orlando bubble. William Hill lists Los Angeles as a six-point favorite in the latest Lakers vs. Nuggets odds. The over-under for total points is set at 214.5. Before making any Nuggets vs. Lakers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Nuggets. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Nuggets spread: Lakers -6
  • Lakers vs. Nuggets over-under: 214.5 points
  • Lakers vs. Nuggets money line: Lakers -250, Nuggets +210
  • LAL: The Lakers are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Lakers can cover

The Lakers are a tremendous two-way team. Offensively, Los Angeles ranks as the No. 2 team in the playoffs and the No. 1 squad among those franchises that advanced beyond the first round. The Lakers are scoring 1.147 points per possession, with top-five marks in both assist rate and free-throw rate. 

Los Angeles is elite in converting shots, ranking second in the NBA in true shooting percentage, and the Lakers secure the offensive glass in grabbing 29.7 percent of their own missed shots. Defensively, the Lakers are also elite, allowing just 1.07 points per possession. Los Angeles leads the playoffs in shot blocking at 5.8 per game, with top-four marks in turnover creation and shooting efficiency allowed.

Why the Nuggets can cover

Jokic and Murray lead one of the best offensive teams in the NBA. Jokic is averaging 25.2 points, 10.2 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game, and the All-NBA center is one of the league’s best offensive players. Murray has taken a leap in the bubble, averaging 26.6 points, 6.5 assists and 5.0 rebounds, and he put Game 3 away with a fourth quarter flurry as a dynamic shooter. 

Overall, Denver is a top-five offensive team, scoring 112.5 points per 100 possessions, and the Nuggets rank No. 4 in the league in both effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage. Denver is also adept at creating extra possessions, grabbing 28.1 percent of its own missed shots in the offensive rebounding department.

How to make Lakers vs. Nuggets picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Murray both projected to exceed their season-long scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Nuggets vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Nuggets spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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