Tom Brady’s decision shakes up Super Bowl odds, sportsbook favors Bucs over Patriots in head-to-head prop


After months of speculation, Tom Brady has finally made the decision on where he will play in 2020. Brady will leave the New England Patriots — with whom he has won six Super Bowls — and head south to captain the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brady has five times more playoff wins, six times as many Super Bowl wins and seven times as many 30-touchdown seasons as all the Buccaneers’ quarterbacks in franchise history, but Brady is prepared to turn the franchise around.  

While everyone expects Brady to improve the Buccaneers in 2020, how much better will they be? This team has suffered three straight losing seasons, and hasn’t made the playoffs since 2007. Quarterback Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing yards and finished second in touchdowns for Tampa Bay last year, but did lead the NFL in interceptions. Brady certainly isn’t a gunslinger at this point in his career, so can he really take this team to the playoffs or the Super Bowl?

According to William Hill Sportsbook, in the immediate wake of the news, Tampa Bay’s futures dropped from 25/1 to 20/1 to win the Super Bowl, and from 12/1 down to 10/1 to win the NFC. Within the hour, they dropped again from 20/1 to 16/1 to win the Super Bowl, and from 10/1 to 8/1 to win the NFC. What’s wild is that they now have shorter odds than the Patriots, who are listed at 20/1 to win the Super Bowl and 10/1 to win the AFC.  

William Hill is also offering a head-to-head prop between the Bucs and Patriots in season win totals, making the Bucs a half-game favorite with -120 odds. That means you can take the Patriots side at even odds and get a half-game, so if the two teams finish even in wins (or if the Patriots finish ahead), you’d essentially double your money.

The Pick Six Podcast fired up an emergency episode to break down everything you need to know about Brady landing with the Buccaneers. Give it a listen below, and be sure to subscribe on your favorite platform:

Until Monday night, the Buccaneers were not considered the favorite to land Brady. Many thought the Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers or even San Francisco 49ers would make a move for the future Pro Football Hall of Famer — and the majority always thought he would return to New England.

According to William Hill, the Buccaneers accounted for just 8 percent of bets and 7 percent of money in the “With which team will Tom Brady’s first snap in 2020 come?” prop. Additionally, for the state of Nevada as a whole, only 5 percent of total dollars and 8 percent of total tickets were on the Buccaneers. If you were wondering the largest winning bet, it was made on March 4 at 50/1 odds. It was a $200 bet that will pay $10,200 in total return when Brady takes a snap with the Buccaneers. 

We’ll see if a soon-to-be 43-year-old can take the Buccaneers from pretender to contender, but if anyone can do it, it’s probably Brady. 





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