2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from simulation that nailed six majors


Rory McIlroy enters the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational as the No. 1 ranked player in the world. McIlroy, who won this event in 2018, has finished fifth or better in every start this season, which includes winning his 18th career PGA Tour event at the WGC-HSBC Champions. McIlroy will be joined by former champions like Jason Day (2016), Phil Mickelson (1997), Marc Leishman (2017) and Francesco Molinari (2019) in the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational field.

However, this week’s field will noticeably be missing eight-time champion Tiger Woods, who has not played since the Genesis Invitational. The latest 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds list McIlroy as the Vegas favorite at 9-2, with Tommy Fleetwood (12-1) and Hideki Matsuyama (14-1) also coming in at 14-1 or shorter. The first 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational tee times are at 6:45 a.m. ET on Thursday. Before locking in any 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks of your own or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, be sure to check out the predictions and projected leaderboard from the team at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed two of the last three majors entering the weekend. It predicted Gary Woodland’s first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn’t the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Brooks Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka’s historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he’d hold his lead in the home stretch.

In all, their advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. And already this season, the model called Justin Thomas winning the CJ Cup, Rory McIlroy taking down the WGC-HSBC Champions and Viktor Hovland earning his first career PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now that the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2020 field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard. 

The model’s top 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for: Bryson DeChambeau, the 2018 runner-up and one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles this week and doesn’t even crack the top five.

DeChambeau is off to blistering start this season. The 26-year-old is coming off an impressive performance at the WGC-Mexico Championship that saw him earn a runner-up finish. He’s now finished fifth or better in three of his last four official PGA Tour starts. However, DeChambeau has struggled to finish on top of the leaderboard despite consistently finding himself in the mix. In fact, DeChambeau has not won a PGA Tour event since November 2018.

In addition, DeChambeau enters the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2020 ranked 119th in driving accuracy percentage (61.04), which doesn’t bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard this week. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in this loaded field.

Another surprise: Xander Schauffele, a massive 22-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Schauffele might not be the household name some of the other players who will be competing at Bay Hill are, but he’s made plenty of noise this season on the PGA Tour. He earned a runner-up finish at the WGC-HSBC Champions and the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He also finished in the top 15 at the Zozo Championship and the WGC-Mexico Championship. 

And while Schauffele has not won a PGA Tour event since January 2019, the 26-year-old has all the tools needed to climb the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard. Schauffele is a long ball hitter who averages over 306 yards per drive, which ranks 34th on the PGA Tour. His ability to drive the ball deep into the fairway allows him to use his short irons to approach the green, which has helped him nearly 75 percent of greens in regulation this season. He’s a long shot you should be all over to climb the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard.

How to make 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks

Also, the model says four other golfers with odds of 22-1 or longer will make a strong run at the title, including a massive long shot who’s higher than 35-1. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard from the model that’s nailed six golf majors, and find out.

2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds

Rory McIlroy 9-2
Tommy Fleetwood 12-1
Hideki Matsuyama 14-1
Bryson DeChambeau 16-1
Adam Scott 18-1
Xander Schauffele 22-1
Brooks Koepka 28-1
Patrick Reed 28-1
Sungjae Im 28-1
Jason Day 33-1
Tony Finau 33-1
Rickie Fowler 33-1
Byeong Hun An 40-1
Billy Horschel 40-1
Collin Morikawa 40-1
Justin Rose 40-1
Henrik Stenson 40-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 45-1
Tyrell Hatton 45-1
Marc Leishman 45-1
Viktor Hovland 50-1
Bubba Watson 50-1
Abraham Ancer 66-1
Harris English 66-1
Lee Westwood 66-1
J.B. Holmes 80-1
Max Homa 80-1
Kevin Kisner 80-1
Phil Mickelson 80-1
Ian Poulter 80-1
Scottie Scheffler 80-1
Rafa Cabrera-Bello 90-1
Bud Cauley 90-1
Ryan Moore 90-1
Kevin Na 90-1
Carlos Ortiz 90-1
Brendan Steele 90-1
Keegan Bradley 100-1
Wyndham Clark 100-1
Lucas Glover 100-1
Brian Harman 100-1





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