2020 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Rating every player by downside or likelihood of being dropped


Usually when we talk about players, we talk about how good they could be, what their upside is. Meanwhile, projection systems try to pinpoint each player’s most-likely scenario.

But downside is also a factor that should influence player rankings. It certainly influences my own. Rarely do we discuss players in those terms, though, except in the context of identifying bust candidates.

I’d like to try attacking it another way while we have all this time on our hands. And so I’ve taken the time here to rate every player by how likely he is to be dropped within the first month. This rating takes into account factors like injury risk, playing time risk, performance risk, etc. It takes into account the level of investment a Fantasy GM would have in each player. One who’s drafted early is less likely to be dropped within a month precisely because he was drafted early, and in that same vain, these ratings will give you a sense of how patient you should be with each player.

Not every player is explicitly shown here, of course, but for the ones who aren’t, it’s fair to assume the meter is maxed out.

Catcher

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First base

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Second base

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Third base

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Shortstop

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Outfield

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Starting pitcher

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Relief pitcher

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