2020 Fantasy Football Breakouts: Courtland Sutton, D.J. Moore lead third-year receivers

There are plenty of things to love about breakouts. The most important is that they have the ability to win you your league a la Lamar Jackson in 2019. In Fantasy Football, it doesn’t get any more important than that. 

But my second favorite thing about breakouts is that they aren’t dependent on anything else. With busts you kind of need to choose players that other analysts like. With sleepers you have to choose players being overlooked by at least some of the industry. With breakouts, we’re free to all agree, like we mostly did with Chris Godwin last year. 

I don’t know for sure who that guy is going to be in 2020, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Courtland Sutton. Sutton is entering the famed third year for a receiver (so are three more receivers below) just like Godwin was in 2019. He made a leap last year, but through the development of Drew Lock and the implementation of a new offense there’s certainly room for more growth.

Sutton has averaged 8.7 yards per target in his first two seasons in the league. If he maintains that and sees a 15% increase in targets from last year you’re looking at 1,235 receiving yards on 142 targets. He’s scored once every 20 targets, so seven scores should be the expectation with that type of volume. The question then becomes if he can earn that type of volume.

He already did.

In five games with Lock, Sutton saw 25.6% of the team’s targets. In 2020, I have the Broncos projected for 573 pass attempts (league median in 2019 was 575). That brings Sutton to a projection of 143 targets. And like Godwin, that brings Sutton into a projected breakout status, which is generally a signal that everyone is going to predict it. In 2019, that meant people were taking Godwin in the third round and eyebrows were raised. Godwin was worth every bit of that cost and Sutton should be too.

Here are the rest of my early breakouts:

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