2020 NBA Playoffs: Celtics vs. Heat odds, picks, Game 3 predictions from model on 61-33 roll

The Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat will face off in primetime on Saturday evening, with the Heat holding a 2-0 series lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker key things for the Celtics, with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo leading the way for the Heat. Gordon Hayward (ankle) is listed as questionable to play for the Celtics, with Javonte Green (knee) listed as probable and Romeo Langford (adductor) ruled out. For Miami, Andre Iguodala (back) is probable to play. 

This 2020 NBA Playoffs matchup tips at 8:30 p.m. ET inside the Orlando bubble. William Hill lists Boston as the 2.5-point favorite. The over-under is 206.5 points in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds. Before locking in any Heat vs. Celtics picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Heat vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Heat spread: Celtics -2.5
  • Celtics vs. Heat over-under: 206.5 points
  • Celtics vs. Heat money line: Celtics -145, Heat +125
  • BOS: The Celtics are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 9-1 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Celtics can cover

Though Boston has struggled at times in this series, the Celtics still have three star-level offensive creators to provide optimism. Tatum leads the way with 25.3 points and 10.0 rebounds per game in the playoffs, with Jaylen Brown adding 20.7 points and 7.3 rebounds per game and Walker providing 19.8 points and 5.2 assists per contest. Boston finished with the No. 4 offense in the NBA during the regular season, including top-six marks in turnover avoidance and offensive rebounding, and the Celtics are No. 4 in the postseason in free-throw generation. 

Defensively, Boston remains elite, boasting the No. 1 defense in the playoffs on a per-possession basis. The Celtics lead the playoffs in effective field-goal percentage allowed, including top in marks in field-goal percentage allowed (41.3 percent) and 3-point percentage allowed (31.7 percent). Boston does not have a traditionally dominant rim protector, but the Celtics also rank fourth in blocks per game (5.2) and they should be properly motivated in a must-win setting.

Why the Heat can cover

The Heat own the best record in the NBA Playoffs 2020, winning 10 of their 11 games and covering the spread in each victory. Miami has been tremendous on both ends, including the best assist rate (67 percent) among teams remaining in the postseason and a top-three assist-to-turnover ratio (1.78-to-1) in the playoffs overall. The Heat also rank No. 5 in the playoffs in both offensive and defensive rebounding, maximizing possessions to allow their shooting to shine. 

Miami finished No. 3 in the NBA in shooting efficiency during the regular season and, in the playoffs, the Heat are No. 3 in true shooting percentage at 59.5 percent. Finally, the Heat are taking full advantage of the 3-point line. In addition to having prolific marksmen in Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Jae Crowder and Goran Dragic, the Heat lead the playoffs in 3-point attempts allowed per game (33.0) and they defend the 3-point line at a top-five rate, allowing opponents to convert only 35.0 percent of their triples. 

How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with Tatum and Dragic both projected to outperform their season-long scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Heat vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced computer model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

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