2020 Rebel Stakes odds, predictions, contenders: Expert picks from proven horse racing handicapper

Five-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert will try to qualify another horse for the Run for the Roses when he sends out the highly-regarded Nadal on Saturday in the 2020 Rebel Stakes. Already one of the leading candidates for the Run for the Roses, Nadal would earn 50 Derby qualifying points and join stablemate Authentic in the Kentucky Derby field with a victory. The son of Blame is the 5-2 favorite in the 2020 Rebel Stakes odds.

Three other 2020 Rebel Stakes contenders — Basin (3-1), Silver Prospector (7-2) and Three Technique (7-2) — are 7-2 or shorter in the 2020 Rebel Stakes field. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, Oaklawn Park officials announced that Saturday’s card will be held without fans in attendance. Post time for the 1 1/16-mile race is 6:23 p.m. ET. With very little separating the top four choices, you’ll want to see the horse racing predictions from accomplished handicapper Bob Weir before locking in any 2020 Rebel Stakes picks.

Based in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Weir has been handicapping and following horse racing since reading Andy Beyer’s landmark handicapping book “Picking Winners” in the late 1980s. Weir is highly invested in the Beyer Speed Figure, a number assigned to every race run by a horse that measures how fast the horse ran. He uses the figure as the backbone of his handicapping. In fact, thanks to his proficiency with speed figures and top-tier handicapping, he landed one of just eight spots on Beyer’s figure-making team in 2017, a position he holds to this day.

Weir’s methodology has produced multiple five-figure days. In 2014, he hit a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar on a $144 ticket. The following year, he nailed a $31,000 Pick 6 at Gulfstream Park on a $36 investment. In 2016 and 2017, Weir qualified for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas.

And this year, his first for SportsLine, Weir has been on fire. In January he crushed the Pegasus World Cup, giving out an $8 exacta, which paid $312.80, and a $1 trifecta, which paid $444.80, for a total of $757.60. In last month’s Sam F. Davis Stakes, he gave out the $.50 superfecta, which paid $150.75. So far this year, Weir has turned $516 into $979. Anyone who has followed his lead is way up.

Now, Weir has handicapped the Rebel Stakes 2020, made his top picks and formulated his bets. You can head to SportsLine to see them.

Top 2020 Rebel Stakes predictions

One shocker: Weir is largely fading Nadal, even though he’s the favorite at 5-2 on the morning line. The son of Blame was a $700,000 purchase last year and has begun his career looking like a bargain, with two wins in two starts. His career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 98 is the highest in the field.

But the Rebel will be his first race around two turns and beyond seven furlongs. In addition, the front-running Nadal is likely to see pace pressure for the first time, most likely from No Parole. Finally, Nadal is likely to leave the starting gate at even lower odds, leading to even less value.

Weir is high on Basin, the second choice on the morning line at 3-1. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Basin has two wins and a second in three career starts. In his last race, he won the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga in September by 6 1/2 lengths.

Even though this son of Liam’s Map is making his first start in six months, Basin has trained strongly and steadily for his return to the track. In addition, Asmussen wins at an above-average rate with runners returning from layoffs of more than 180 days. Weir will be using Basin prominently in his tickets.

How to make 2020 Rebel Stakes picks

Weir is also high on a horse who is still looking for his first win around two turns. He’s including this horse in his exactas, trifectas and superfectas, and so should you. He’s only sharing which horse to back here.

So which horse who’s winless around two turns will Weir be playing in the Rebel Stakes 2020? And what other horses do you need to include in your exactas, trifectas and superfectas? Check out the latest Rebel Stakes odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir’s picks for the Rebel Stakes.

2020 Rebel Stakes odds

Nadal (5-2)
Excession (30-1)
Basin (3-1)
Silver Prospector (7-2)
No Parole (8-1)
Three Technique (7-2)
Coach Bahe (30-1)
American Theorem (6-1)

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