2021 Super Bowl odds, line, spread: Chiefs vs. Buccaneers picks, predictions from top expert who’s 16-3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will become the first team to play the Super Bowl in its home stadium when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Feb. 7. Two previous teams, the 1979 Los Angeles Rams and 1984 San Francisco 49ers, played the game in their home region but not in their home venue. The Buccaneers (14-5) went 5-3 at home this season, including a 27-24 loss to the Chiefs (16-2) on Nov. 29. Can you trust them at Raymond James Stadium in your 2021 Super Bowl bets?

Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Kansas City is a three-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 56.5. Before making any Buccaneers vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you see what SportsLine senior analyst and resident Kansas City expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. In the 2019 season, he went 58-39 on against-the-spread NFL picks, giving his followers a profit of more than $1,500. He enters the 2021 Super Bowl red-hot, going 22-12-2 in his last 36 against-the-spread NFL picks.

He also has had a keen eye for the tendencies of the Chiefs, posting a stunning 16-3 record on his last 19 spread picks involving Kansas City. Anyone who has consistently followed him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Chiefs vs. Bucs in Super Bowl 55. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and trends for Bucs vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Buccaneers spread: Kansas City -3
  • Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Over-Under: 56.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Buccaneers money line: Kansas City -170, Tampa Bay +150
  • KC: Chiefs led league in passing offense (303.4 yards per game) during the regular season
  • TB: Buccaneers ranked second in passing offense (289.1 yards per game)

Latest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City has arguably the best tight end in the NFL in Travis Kelce. The 6-foot-5 chain-mover is in the midst of his best year, ranking second in the league in receiving yards (1,416) and fifth in receptions (105) during the regular season. In the AFC Championship Game against Buffalo, Kelce had a game-high 13 catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns. 

In addition, the Chiefs may face a Tampa Bay defense that will be without several key playmakers. The Buccaneers finished the NFC Championship Game without their starting safeties. Rookie Antonie Winfield Jr. was a late scratch because of a knee injury he suffered in practice leading up to the game, while Jordan Whitehead left the game in the second half with a shoulder injury and did not return. Their absences would be significant against a team that led the NFL in passing yards per game (303.4) during the regular season.

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Tampa Bay can slow the Chiefs running game. The Buccaneers allowed just 80.6 rushing yards per game during the regular season, which led the league. In the teams’ Week 12 matchup, Tampa Bay gave up just 59 rushing yards on 16 carries to Kansas City running backs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell, an average of only 3.7 yards per attempt. 

In addition, Leonard Fournette has emerged as a reliable threat in the backfield. In the 2021 NFL Playoffs, the former first-rounder has overtaken Ronald Jones II as the team’s top back, rushing for 211 yards and two touchdowns on 48 carries. Just as importantly, Fournette has 14 receptions for 102 yards and a touchdown in the three playoff games. 

How to make Buccaneers vs. Chiefs picks

Hartstein has analyzed this matchup, and while he’s leaning over on the total, he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s only sharing it here

So who wins Buccaneers vs. Chiefs in the Super Bowl 2021? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Buccaneers vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on, all from the expert who’s 16-3 on picks involving Kansas City.

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