2021 U.S. Open odds: Surprising PGA picks, Torrey Pines predictions from computer model that called six majors


After his stunning win at the PGA Championship, Phil Mickelson enters the 2021 U.S. Open in search of the career grand slam when play tees off from the South Course at Torrey Pines on June 17 in San Diego, Calif. Lefty is a six-time major champion but the U.S. Open is the one title that has eluded him. He’ll take on a loaded U.S. Open 2021 field that includes past winners such as Bryson DeChambeau (2020), Brooks Koepka (2017, 2018), Dustin Johnson (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015) and Rory McIlroy (2011), among others.

Mickelson is getting 50-1 in the latest 2021 U.S. Open odds from William Hill Sportsbook, much higher than favorites such as Johnson (10-1), Jon Rahm (11-1) and McIlroy (12-1). Others close to the top of the PGA odds board for this major include DeChambeau, Spieth, Koepka and Justin Thomas all at 14-1. Before locking in any 2021 U.S. Open picks, be sure to see the 2021 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour last June. In fact, it’s up well over $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the Masters in April, McClure nailed Jon Rahm’s (+250) top-five finish, as well as Corey Conners’ (+550) top-10 showing. McClure’s best bets netted over $450 at the Masters.

In addition, McClure was all over Daniel Berger’s win at +1400 in his best bets at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. McClure also nailed Viktor Hovland’s (+2500) victory in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. That was one of many huge calls he’s made in the past several months. He also finished profitable at the 2020 U.S. Open, nailing two of his best bets, including a +1100 top-five bet on Matthew Wolff.

This same model has also nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2021 U.S. Open field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 U.S. Open leaderboard.

The model’s top 2021 U.S. Open predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2021: DeChambeau, the defending U.S. Open champion and one of the top favorites, struggles and fails to crack the top 10. DeChambeau has been one of the hottest players on tour this season, finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2020 U.S. Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The eight-time PGA Tour champion has been explosive off the tee this season, ranking first in driving distance at 322.5 yards, but those long bombs haven’t been regularly finding the fairway. In fact, he ranks 178th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy (54.63 percent). He only has one top-10 finish since March and finished outside the top 30 in the three majors since his U.S. Open win last year. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the 2021 U.S. Open field.

Another surprise: Webb Simpson, a 28-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the 2021 U.S. Open title. He has a better chance to win it all than his odds imply. Simpson had his breakthrough performance at the U.S. Open in 2012, firing back-to-back 68s over the weekend to win by one stroke for his first and only career major victory.

He won just one tournament between 2013 and 2017, but he’s had a resurgence recently, winning twice in 2020, and recording five top-10 performances during the 2020-21 PGA Tour schedule. He ranks eighth on the PGA Tour this season in driving accuracy (70.29 percent), and he’s 11th on tour in strokes gained via putting, meaning he has the complete game to contend at Torrey Pines. His long odds make him a strong value pick for 2021 U.S. Open bets. 

How to make 2021 U.S. Open picks

The model is targeting three other golfers with U.S. Open odds 2021 of 22-1 or higher to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who will win the U.S. Open 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed six golf majors and is up well over $9,000 since the restart.

2021 U.S. Open odds

Dustin Johnson 10-1
Jon Rahm 11-1
Rory McIlroy 12-1
Justin Thomas 14-1
Jordan Spieth 14-1
Bryson DeChambeau 14-1
Brooks Koepka 14-1
Xander Schauffele 16-1
Collin Morikawa 22-1
Patrick Cantlay 28-1
Webb Simpson 28-1
Viktor Hovland 28-1
Hideki Matsuyama 28-1
Tyrrell Hatton 33-1
Patrick Reed 33-1
Daniel Berger 33-1
Tony Finau 33-1
Will Zalatoris 33-1
Tommy Fleetwood 33-1
Justin Rose 40-1
Louis Oosthuizen 45-1
Scottie Scheffler 45-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 50-1
Sung-Jae Im 50-1
Cameron Smith 50-1
Phil Mickelson 50-1
Joaquin Niemann 60-1
Jason Day 60-1
Harris English 66-1
Marc Leishman 66-1
Shane Lowry 66-1
Abraham Ancer 66-1
Corey Conners 66-1
Adam Scott 66-1
Lee Westwood 66-1
Sergio Garcia 66-1
Rickie Fowler 66-1
Max Homa 80-1
Gary Woodland 80-1
Matthew Wolff 80-1
Brandt Snedeker 100-1
Bubba Watson 100-1
Henrik Stenson 100-1
Billy Horschel 100-1
Branden Grace 100-1
Cameron Champ 100-1
Francesco Molinari 100-1
Si-Woo Kim 100-1
Kevin Na 125-1
Robert Macintyre 125-1
Sebastian Munoz 125-1
Carlos Ortiz 125-1
Kevin Kisner 125-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125-1
Thomas Pieters 125-1
Matt Wallace 125-1
Brendon Todd 125-1
Matt Kuchar 125-1
Stewart Cink 125-1
Ian Poulter 125-1
Jason Kokrak 125-1
Mackenzie Hughes 150-1
Brian Harman 150-1
Zach Johnson 150-1
Alex Noren 150-1
Bernd Wiesberger 150-1
Martin Kaymer 150-1
Chez Reavie 175-1
Ryan Palmer 200-1
Erik Van Rooyen 200-1
Graeme McDowell 200-1





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