NFL odds, lines, picks, predictions for Week 1, 2021: Top-rated model backing 49ers, Panthers

The Week 1 NFL schedule will see AFC East rivals collide when the New England Patriots host the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots have dominated the series in Foxborough over the years, winning 11 of their last 12 home games against Miami. However, the Dolphins have won two of the last three meetings overall, including a 27-24 victory on the road in December 2019. New England enters Sunday’s showdown as a three-point favorite according to the latest Week 1 NFL odds at Caesars Sportsbook.

The only other divisional matchup in Week 1 sees the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to NRG Stadium to face the Houston Texans. Jacksonville is favored by 2.5 in the debut of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, one of the tightest NFL spreads of the week. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

One of the top Week 1 NFL predictions the model recommends: The 49ers (-7.5) cover the spread against the Lions. Detroit’s home field advantage has been nonexistent in recent years. In fact, the Lions are just 1-11 in their last 12 games at Ford Field.

San Francisco, meanwhile, has been successful on the road, winning 12 of its last 17 away games. The 49ers are also 10-1 in their last 11 meetings against the Lions. SportsLine’s model expects that trend to continue as George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel combine for well over 200 receiving yards against a Detroit defense that gave up 419.8 yards per game last season. That’s one of the main reasons why the model has the 49ers covering in almost 60 percent of simulations.

Another one of the top Week 1 NFL picks from the model: The Panthers (-5.5) cover as home favorites against the Jets. This is a revenge game for Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold, who spent his first three seasons with the Jets. Darnold will lead a Carolina offense that features Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Terrace Marshall.

McCaffrey became just the third player in NFL history with at least 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season in 2019. Carolina’s running back dealt with numerous injuries in 2020, but he’ll be eager to dominate a New York defense that gave up 387.6 yards per game last season.

SportsLine’s model is expecting McCaffrey to rack up nearly 130 all-purpose yards against the Jets. The model has also taken into account that the Panthers are 7-0 in their last seven games against opponents from the AFC East.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900 since its inception, and find out.

Week 1 NFL odds (via Caesars)

Thursday, Sept. 9 

Cowboys at Buccaneers (-8, 51.5)

Sunday, Sept. 12

Steelers at Bills (-6.5, 48.5)

Jets at Panthers (-5.5, 44.5)

Jaguars at Texans (+2.5, 44.5)

Cardinals at Titans (-3. 52)

Chargers at Washington (+1, 44.5)

Eagles at Falcons (-3, 48)

Seahawks at Colts (+2.5, 49.5)

Vikings at Bengals (+3, 47.5)

49ers at Lions (+7.5, 45)

Browns at Chiefs (-6, 54.5)

Dolphins at Patriots (-3, 43.5)

Broncos at Giants (+3, 42)

Packers at Saints (+4, 50)

Bears at Rams (-7.5, 46.5)

Monday, Sept. 13

Ravens at Raiders (+4.5, 50.5)