Thursday, May 26, 2022

2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds, picks, lineup: Model reveals predictions for Bristol, NASCAR Playoffs

The Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway has always been one of the marquee events on the NASCAR Cup Series, but beginning last year, the schedulers gave it extra juice. The 2021 Bristol Night Race is the final event before the cut from 16 drivers to 12. The 2021 NASCAR Playoffs at Bristol will feature several drivers who are realistically fighting to continue. Kurt Busch and Alex Bowman are currently tied for 12th place and there are seven drivers within 20 points.

There are eight drivers in the 2021 NASCAR at Bristol starting grid at 10-1 or shorter in the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds from Caesars Sportsbook. However, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are at the top of the 2021 Bristol Night Race odds as 5-1 co-favorites. Before scouring the 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Bristol predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Bristol Night Race picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At the Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. It also called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout and then correctly predicted the top five drivers at Watkins Glen before nailing at least seven of the top 10 in each of the last two weeks. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 Bristol Night Race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race leaderboard.

Top 2021 Bristol Night Race predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Kurt Busch, even though he’s an 18-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Bristol odds 2021. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Busch is currently tied for 12th with Bowman, so he’ll race for a chance to continue his postseason run after a crash in Richmond led to a 37th-place finish that dropped him from 12th to fourth in the standings.

It’s hard to imagine anywhere that Busch would be more confident in putting together a strong run than Bristol Motor Speedway. The 43-year-old veteran knows the steeply-banked 0.533-mile oval well, having won six times there in a Cup car. That includes Bristol Night Race wins in 2003 and 2018. He’s also collected five top-10 finishes in his last five starts at the track.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliot, one of the Vegas favorites at 7-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Bristol Night Race starting lineup. Elliott is currently seventh in the standings and still close enough to the 13th-place bubble (19 points) that he needs to stay on the track on Saturday night.

That shouldn’t be a problem for Elliott, but he has never won in 10 starts on the pavement at Bristol Motor Speedway and has also finished outside the top 10 in five of those starts. The defending NASCAR Cup Series champion hasn’t won anywhere but a road course this season and is priced too steeply for Saturday night’s action.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Bristol picks

The model is also targeting one other driver with 2021 Bristol Night Race odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. It also sees value in a massive triple-digit long shot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 Bristol Night Race? And which massive triple-digit long shot is a shocking value? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Bristol odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race leaderboard, all from the model that has called several race winners this season and predicted at least seven of the top 10 the last two weeks

2021 Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds

Kyle Larson 5-1

Kyle Busch 5-1

Denny Hamlin 5-1

Chase Elliott 7-1

Kevin Harvick 17-2

Brad Keselowski 17-2

Joey Logano 10-1

Ryan Blaney 10-1

Martin Truex Jr. 15-1

Kurt Busch 18-1

Alex Bowman 20-1

William Byron 20-1

Christopher Bell 28-1

Ross Chastain 40-1

Tyler Reddick 40-1

Aric Almirola 40-1

Austin Dillon 60-1

Matt DiBenedetto 60-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-1

Bubba Wallace 100-1

Daniel Suarez 125-1

Ryan Newman 150-1

Cole Custer 150-1

Chris Buescher 250-1

Erik Jones 300-1

Chase Briscoe 300-1

Michael McDowell 500-1

Ryan Preece 750-1

Corey Lajoie 2500-1

Justin Haley 2500-1

Anthony Alfredo 2500-1

Garrett Smithley 5000-1

David Starr 5000-1

James Davison 5000-1

B.J. McLeod 5000-1

Quin Houff 5000-1

J.J. Yeley 5000-1

Josh Bilicki 5000-1

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