Monday, February 6, 2023

The Mavericks really miss Luka Doncic, plus Bam Adebayo set for big night vs. Pistons and other best bets

Good afternoon my fellow gamblers, it’s Chris Bengel back with you on another Tuesday. I hope everyone is as ready for Thanksgiving as I am. All the food and loads of football and basketball over the next couple of days. Sign me up for that.

The only gripe is that there may not exactly be a ton of money to be made during Thursday’s NFL slate. The day gets started with the Detroit Lions taking on the Chicago Bears and we could be looking at a quarterback matchup of Tim Boyle vs. Andy Dalton. The Las Vegas Raiders take on the Dallas Cowboys, which could end up being a decent contest. However, the Cowboys are without star wideout Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb could also be out with a concussion.

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In the nightcap, we have the New Orleans Saints hosting the Buffalo Bills in a matchup of two teams that are coming off tough losses. In fact, all six teams playing on Thursday are coming off of defeats in Week 11. Personally, I’d probably be more comfortable throwing some money on the college basketball or NBA slates on Thursday and Friday, but Tom Fornelli will be back with you tomorrow to tell you what he thinks about the NFL slate. 

For now, I have a few plays that I feel great about on Tuesday.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket


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🏀Mavericks vs. Clippers, 10:40 p.m. | TV: NBA.TV

Latest Odds: Los Angeles Clippers -3.5

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The Pick: Clippers -5.5 (-110): The Clippers were really good to us last week, so I’m going back to the well. This is also a great spot for the Clippers considering that Luka Doncic is currently being listed as doubtful as he aggravated an already injured knee during a scrimmage on Monday. Since Doncic went down last week, the Mavericks have dropped all three games that they’ve been forced to play without him — including one to the Clippers.

Even though Kawhi Leonard has yet to play a game this season, Paul George has really picked up his game on the offensive end. George is currently averaging 26.4 points-per-game, which is good for fourth in the NBA behind only Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. As a team, the Clippers are one of the better three-point shooting teams with a 35.5 percent clip while the Mavericks are in the middle of the pack in terms of their perimeter defense. The Clippers normally shoot the ball well and should be able to cover this fairly small number at home.

Key Trend: The Clippers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite

💰 The Picks



Heat vs. Pistons, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA.TV

The Pick: Bam Adebayo Over 18.5 points (-110) —
Pistons starting center Isaiah Stewart is slated to miss this game as he serves his two-game suspension stemming from his altercation with LeBron James on Sunday. With Stewart out of the lineup, Bam Adebayo props are definitely the way to go. Without Stewart, the Pistons frontcourt consists of Jerami Grant, Trey Lyles, Luke Garza, and Josh Jackson. There’s definitely going to be a size advantage for Adebayo.

In three of the Heat’s last five games, Adebayo has scored at least 20 points. On the season, the Heat big man is averaging 19.4 points-per-game and has gone over 18.5 points in seven games. While that doesn’t seem like a lot, Adebayo finds himself in a unique situation against a smaller frontcourt that he should be able to exploit. Look for Adebayo to feast on the Pistons.

Key Trend: Adebayo has scored at least 20 points in three of his last five games


Oilers vs. Stars, 8:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN+

Latest Odds: Edmonton Oilers +1.5

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The Pick: Oilers (-105) — Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve noticed how impressive the Oilers have been throughout the early portion of the 2021-22 season. One of the biggest reasons for the team’s stellar start has been their success on the offensive end of the ice. This is a group that is averaging 3.9 goals-per-game and that’s not a hard mark to keep up when you have two of the most talented playmakers in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

The Oilers have scored seven goals over their past two games and McDavid has registered at least one point in every game this season.

Meanwhile, the Stars simply don’t possess the same scoring prowess. Dallas is averaging just 2.6 goals-per-game and have only scored more than three goals on three occasions this season. On Tuesday, the Stars will be starting young goaltender Jake Oettinger in net, who has posted a 2-0 record to go along with a 1.43 goals-against-average. Oettinger has been great since being called up earlier this month, but he hasn’t faced an offense as dangerous as the Oilers. This could be a close contest, but I’m confident in backing the Oilers with some fantastic odds.

Key Trend: The Oilers are 11-1 in their last 12 games against Western Conference teams

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