Friday, May 27, 2022

NFL Week 13 early odds: Bills are field goal favorites over red-hot Patriots; Saints home dog to Cowboys

Week 12 in the NFL is nearly in the books with just the Seahawks and Washington Football Team set to go head-to-head during “Monday Night Football.” This slate had no shortage of storylines, including that we now have a new No. 1 seed in the AFC in the Ravens, who overcame four Lamar Jackson interceptions to defeat the Browns. Not only was there movement throughout the ever-evolving playoff picture, but there were various other developments over the week that’ll almost certainly impact the lines heading into Week 13. 

While we wait for Week 12 to officially wrap up, now seems like as good of a time as ever to begin our research into this next collection of games and see what the opening lines are for each contest across the upcoming slate. 

Week 13 early odds

(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)

Cowboys (7-4) at Saints (5-6), Thursday 

Opening line: Cowboys -5

Both of these teams are coming off Thanksgiving losses, but there seems to be a solid amount of faith in the Cowboys, who opened as a five-point favorite. However, they’ll be rolling into New Orleans without their head coach in Mike McCarthy, who will miss this matchup after testing positive for COVID-19. That news has brought this spread down to Cowboys -5.5 after it had jumped up to Cowboys -6 coming out of Sunday. Dallas is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the NFC, while the Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against the conference, so things could be leaning favorably toward the Cowboys, despite losing their head coach. 

Giants (4-7) at Dolphins (5-7) 

Opening line: Dolphins -2.5

This has since jumped up to a full field goal advantage for the Dolphins, who have sneakily won four straight, including a 33-10 victory over the Panthers in Week 12 where Tua Tagovailoa completed 87% of his passes. Meanwhile, New York was able to grind out a win over the Eagles at home, but they could be in some trouble as they head down to Hard Rock Stadium, despite being 4-1 ATS in their last five. This season, the Giants are 1-4 straight-up away from MetLife Stadium. That trends positively for the Dolphins, who are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record. 

Colts (6-6) at Texans (2-9) 

Opening line: Colts -7

This has since jumped to Colts -7.5 coming out of Sunday. Indy is off the heels of a last-second loss to the Buccaneers where Leonard Fournette found the end zone four times on the day. As for Houston, they couldn’t hang on to a field goal lead at halftime over the Jets as New York rallied with a 10-0 run over the final two quarters to hand the Texans their ninth loss of the year. While both of these teams were on the losing end of things in Week 12, the Colts are the far superior team and the oddsmakers are treating them as such. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and 5-1 ATS in their last six as a road favorite. 

Vikings (5-6) at Lions (0-10-1) 

Opening line: Vikings -7.5 

This has come down to Vikings -7 following Minnesota’s loss to the 49ers on Sunday. Not only were the Vikings on the losing end of their matchup, but saw running back Dalvin Cook suffer a shoulder injury that will likely keep him out for this matchup and possibly longer. While Minnesota still has plenty of weapons to throw at the winless Lions, it wasn’t surprising to see things tick down in the aftermath of Cook’s injury. This number does look promising for Detroit, however, as the Vikings are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite and are 0-6 ATS against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Eagles (5-7) at Jets (3-8) 

Opening line: Eagles -6

The Eagles have since bumped up to a 7-point favorite over the Jets this week. Philly is coming off a loss in Week 12 to the Giants at MetLife Stadium in a game that saw Jalen Hurts struggle tremendously. He threw three interceptions and completed roughly 45.1% of his passes. Despite those struggles. the oddsmakers aren’t impressed with the Jets even if they were able to come away with a win in Week 12. Rookie Zach Wilson is still battling some inefficiencies, so this could prove to be a low-scoring affair if both quarterbacks continue to struggle. New York is 1-6 ATS against teams with a losing record, while the Eagles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. 

Cardinals (9-2) at Bears (4-7) 

Opening line: Cardinals -7

The Cardinals could be getting Kyler Murray back for this game following a Week 12 bye and will be facing a Bears team that narrowly defeated the Lions on Thanksgiving. Of course, that was without rookie quarterback Justin Fields, who is battling rib injuries. Both quarterbacks will be worth monitoring as the week progresses, but Arizona will be considered the road favorite regardless, it appears. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record, while the Bears are 0-4 in their last four games as a home underdog. 

Chargers (6-5) at Bengals (7-4) 

Opening line: Bengals -2

This spread has since bumped up to a full field goal to Bengals -3. Cincinnati looks like it has found its mojo over the last few weeks with the latest win being a smackdown over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Meanwhile, the Chargers are still in the thick of the AFC West race but just suffered a rough loss to the Broncos in Denver where Justin Herbert threw two interceptions (including a pick-six). L.A. hasn’t been the safest bet as of late as they come into this matchup 1-5 ATS in their last six. However, Cincinnati also hasn’t been a lock in the aftermath of a win, owning a 3-8 ATS record following their last 11 straight-up victories. 

Buccaneers (8-3) at Falcons (5-6) 

Opening line: Buccaneers -9.5

Tampa Bay is now considered a 10-point favorite in this matchup against Atlanta. The Bucs are coming off a last-second win over the Indianapolis Colts that was spearheaded by Leonard Fournette and his four touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Falcons got some elite production from its backfield in the win over Jacksonville as Cordarrelle Patterson totaled 135 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. This game occurring in Atlanta does make the Falcons an interesting pick as the Bucs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. 

Jaguars (2-9) at Rams (7-4) 

Opening line: Rams -12.5

The Rams have moved up to a 13-point favorite, which is the biggest spread of the upcoming slate. L.A. is coming off a loss against the Packers where Matthew Stafford turned the ball over twice, including a pick-six in the second half. The Rams were able to get Odell Beckham Jr. involved as he caught five of his 10 targets for 81 yards and a score, but it wasn’t enough to pull out the victory. They should have a much easier time against Jacksonville, who suffered a loss to the Falcons at home. Taking the massive amount of points could prove to be the wise move for this matchup as L.A. is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as the favorite. Meanwhile, the Jags are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning record. 

Washington (4-6) at Raiders (6-5) 

Opening line: Raiders -1.5

The Raiders have jumped to a 2.5-point favorite, but any more significant movement likely won’t occur until after Monday night. Recently, the Raiders have not been particularly strong at home, going 1-4 ATS in their last five contests at Allegiant Stadium. They are also 1-5 ATS against teams with a losing record, so Washington could prove to be the play here. 

Ravens (8-3) at Steelers (5-5-1) 

Opening line: Ravens -3

The Steelers are now getting the hook as this line has moved to Ravens -3.5. Despite the win on Sunday night, Lamar Jackson did not look good as he threw four interceptions. That said, Ben Roethlisberger arguably looked worse for the Steelers in their loss to the Bengals in Week 12. He threw two picks and a touchdown while completing just 58% of his throws. In their last seven home games, the Steelers are 1-6 ATS. That doesn’t sound too promising as they await to host a Ravens team that is 9-2 ATS against the AFC North in their last 11 matchups. 

49ers (6-5) at Seahawks (3-7) 

Opening line: 49ers -1

This number will likely change following Monday’s tilt between Seattle and Washington, especially if Russell Wilson looks healthier following his return from his finger injury. Meanwhile, the 49ers did see star receiver Deebo Samuel suffer an injury in their win over the Vikings so his status will be worth watching throughout the week. The Niners have been a favorable bet over the last month or so as they are 4-1 ATS over their last five games. As a road favorite, they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight.  

Broncos (6-5) at Chiefs (7-4) 

Opening line: Chiefs -9.5

Kansas City and Denver will wrap up Sunday’s action at Arrowhead Stadium in what is a pivotal AFC West head-to-head. The Chiefs are coming off a Week 12 bye, while the Broncos were able to handle the Chargers largely thanks to two interceptions by rookie corner Patrick Surtain. While the Chiefs are starting to turn the corner, they haven’t been a safe bet at home. Over their last 12 home games, K.C. is 2-10 ATS. Meanwhile, Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning record. 

Patriots (8-4) at Bills (7-4), Monday 

Opening line: Bills -3

Week 13 concludes with a doozy on Monday night as the Patriots and Bills will look to gain an edge in the AFC East. New England is riding a six-game winning streak into this matchup, while the Bills are playing on extended rest after dropping 31 points against the Saints on Thanksgiving. In their last 11 home games, Buffalo is 7-3-1 ATS, while the Patriots 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. 

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