A berth in the College Football Playoffs could be on the line Saturday in the 2021 Big 12 Championship Game as the No. 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys face the No. 9 Baylor Bears. Kickoff is set for noon ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. With the new CFP rankings released Tuesday, the Cowboys (11-1, 8-1) appear to have a strong chance of making their first trip to the four-team playoff field should they emerge as the Big 12 champion. The Bears (10-2, 7-2) are more of a long shot but could merit consideration should they come out on top. Oklahoma State prevailed 24-14 when the programs met in Week 5 of the regular season.
The Cowboys are 5.5-point favorites and the over-under for total points scored is 46.5 in the latest Oklahoma State vs. Baylor odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Baylor vs. Oklahoma State picks in the Big 12 Championship Game 2021, make sure you check out the CFB predictions and college football betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Championship Week 2021 on a 42-28 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now, the model has zeroed in on Oklahoma State vs. Baylor from every angle and released its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several college football odds and betting lines for Baylor vs. Oklahoma State:
- Oklahoma State vs. Baylor point spread: Oklahoma State -5.5
- Oklahoma State vs. Baylor over-under total: 46.5 points
- Oklahoma State vs. Baylor money line: Oklahoma State -220, Baylor +180
- OSU: The Cowboys have covered the spread in five straight neutral-site games
- BU: The Bears are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog
Featured Game | Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Baylor Bears
Why Oklahoma State can cover
The Cowboys have a chance to accomplish their most successful season under coach Mike Gundy, who took the helm in 2005. In 2011, they finished 12-1 and ranked No. 3 in the final AP poll following a Fiesta Bowl win over Andrew Luck and Stanford. The four-team playoff didn’t exist then, nor did the Big 12 Championship Game.
This year, the Cowboys traded their usually flashy offense for an efficient one and the foundation of their success lies in a defense that had long prevented the program from competing for the conference and national titles. They led the Big 12 with a scoring defensive average of 16.4 points per game and the unit held up well enough to fend off rival Oklahoma 37-33 last week.
The Cowboys trailed 33-24 entering the fourth quarter and held the Sooners scoreless while mounting two touchdown drives. Junior quarterback Spencer Sanders threw two interceptions but otherwise had an efficient outing. He scored on a 37-yard run in the fourth quarter and finished with 214 passing yards and another score.
Why Baylor can cover
The Bears have taken a similar, physical approach under defensive-minded coach Dave Aranda, who has them in the Big 12 title game in just his second year leading the program. They finished second behind Oklahoma State in scoring defense (19.4 ppg) and allowed more than 29 points just once this season in a 30-28 upset loss at TCU.
They have allowed just 48 combined points in their last three games, which included a 27-14 upset of Oklahoma three weeks ago. Baylor also ranked second in the conference in sacks with 32, while allowing the fewest with 11.
Baylor managed a 27-24 victory over Texas Tech in its regular-season finale despite missing starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon, who suffered a hamstring injury two weeks ago against Kansas State and is considered questionable for the Big 12 Championship Game. Freshman Blake Shapen stepped in and went 20-of-34 for 254 yards and two touchdowns against zero interceptions.
How to make Oklahoma State vs. Baylor picks
The model is leaning under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 44 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model’s Big 12 Championship Game pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Oklahoma State vs. Baylor? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Oklahoma State vs. Baylor spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.