The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will meet twice in the next 21 days, with the first matchup coming on Monday Night Football. Buffalo (7-4) has alternated wins and losses since Week 5, but is coming off a decisive victory over the Saints on Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, New England (8-4) has surged to the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed thanks to six straight wins. The Patriots are seeking their first win over the Bills in the post-Tom Brady era.
Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 41. Before you make any Patriots vs. Bills picks or Monday Night Football predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine’s top NFL expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Entering the 2021 campaign, Hartstein was 351-291 all-time on NFL sides, including 326-280 against the spread. He is returning more than $2,200 for $100 bettors and is SportsLine’s No. 1 NFL expert on a 53-26 roll. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, Hartstein has locked in on Bills vs. Patriots from every angle and released a confident against-the-spread pick. You can visit SportsLine now to see it. Here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Patriots vs. Bills:
- Patriots vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -2.5
- Patriots vs. Bills over-under: 41 points
- Patriots vs. Bills money line: New England +125, Buffalo -145
- NE: Patriots are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games overall
- BUF: Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in December
Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Why the Bills can cover
Buffalo is the most balanced team in the league, ranking second in scoring offense and scoring defense. The strongest unit on the Bills is their passing defense, which has allowed the fewest TDs (eight), lowest completion percentage (57.6) and lowest passer rating (62.8). That spells bad news for Mac Jones, who has impressed as a rookie but has struggled on the road. While Jones has a 13:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home, that ratio is just 3:3 away from Gillette Stadium.
On offense, Josh Allen is the catalyst for the Bills’ success and is the only QB with at least 3,000 passing yards and 300 rushing yards. His dual-threat abilities should cause New England trouble, as it struggled with another mobile quarterback, Dak Prescott (445 yards, 3 TD), in a Week 6 loss. Allen, who lost his first three starts versus the Patriots, tied a career-high with four passing TDs when he last saw the Patriots during the 2020 season. Buffalo routed New England by 29 points in that game, which came on the road, so it certainly has what it takes to cover at home.
Why the Patriots can cover
Despite that, Buffalo is not a lock to cover the Patriots vs. Bills spread. That’s because New England has been on a roll in large part due to the play of rookie quarterback Mac Jones. He continues to impress, as he has completed 268-of-381 passes (70.3 percent) for 2,850 yards and 16 touchdowns. He has been intercepted eight times, but has a rating of 97.1. Jones was dominant in the win over Tennessee last Sunday, completing 23-of-32 passes for 310 yards and two touchdowns.
Also making an impact on offense is wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. He has a team-leading 59 receptions for 620 yards (10.5 average) and one touchdown. He has nine explosive plays and has converted 31 first downs. Meyers caught five passes for 98 yards in last Sunday’s win over the Titans and has at least four receptions in 11 of 12 games this year.
How to make Patriots vs. Bills picks
Hartstein is leaning over on the point total, and he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread a must-back. He’s only sharing what it is, along with his Bills vs. Patriots picks, at SportsLine.
So who wins Bills vs. Patriots on Monday Night Football? And what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread you need to jump on, all from the top-rated expert who returned more than $2,200 to $100 players entering the 2021 season, and find out.