Balancing projections vs. upside vs. floor is one of the most difficult, and necessary, things to do in Fantasy Football. It’s also instrumental in determining whether you target Julio Jones or Russell Gage on the waiver wire this week.
When it comes to upside, it’s hard to find more than Julio Jones has. If Jones comes back this week he’ll face one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL and the Titans are without A.J. Brown. In fact, three of his next four opponents rank in the bottom third of the league against receivers. And, lest you think Jones is washed, the veteran receiver is averaged 11.18 yards per target since the start of 2020, which is better than any other receiver who has seen at least 90 targets in that timespan. If he stays healthy for the next four games and sees seven targets a game he could absolutely be a league-winning acquisition.
But when you look at the projections below, you’ll see Gage projected higher than Jones (and in the top 20!) for Week 14. That’s because we don’t know if Jones will be limited in his return. But it’s mostly because Gage has seen 27 targets over his past three games and scored a combined 42 PPR Fantasy points in his past two games.
Now it might seem weird to argue against Gage’s upside when he’s coming off a 24 point game, but that was just his second 100-yard game in his career. A more reasonable expectation is the 6-for-62 line he gave you in Week 12, with upside coming from when he scores.
So what would I do? I’d split the baby. If you’ve locked up a playoff spot, Jones is the right add for upside. If you must win this week and need a wide receiver, I would add Gage.
Here is the rest of the Week 14 WR Preview:
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Week 14 WR Preview
The following players are not being projected to play Week 14 at this time. Here’s what it means:
Numbers to Know
- 100.3 — Elijah Moore has scored 100.3 PPR Fantasy points since Week 9. Only Justin Jefferson has scored more.
- 28.4% — D.J. Moore’s 28.4% target share is third in the NFL behind only Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams.
- 44.4% — Terry McLaurin still leads the NFL with a 44.4% share of his team’s air yards.
- 23.3 — Justin Jefferson has scored at least 23.4 PPR Fantasy points in three of his last four games. He should make it four of five without Adam Thielen.
- 1.96 — Mike Williams is averaging nearly two PPR Fantasy points per target this season. He’d see a big boost in targets if Keenan Allen is out.
- 27.3% — Van Jefferson leads the Rams with a 27.3% air yards share since the team lost Robert Woods.
- 2 — Courtland Sutton does not have more than two catches in any game he’s played with Jerry Jeudy this season.
- 17.1 — Jarvis Landry scored a season-high 17.1 PPR Fantasy points when the Browns played the Ravens in Week 12.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets
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