This will be the final week that this column will focus solely on 2021 because after next week 80% of your league’s season will be over. Of course, on Monday afternoon, we’re not exactly after this week yet. We still have four games with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp and many more still to play. Week 15 is far from decided, but it looks like several backfields are, at least for the rest of this season.
Ameer Abdullah is a good flex in Week 16 against Tampa Bay
The Case: This may seem like a strange place to start, but it was a strange Week 15. For the third consecutive week Abdullah out-snapped Chuba Hubbard and this week it came with production. Abdullah turned his eight touches into 55 yards, a touchdown, and 15.5 PPR Fantasy points. He’s the Panthers clear preference on passing downs, playing from behind, and in the two-minute drill. And with the current state of this team, that makes him the best Panthers running back.
The Verdict: Believe it
In PPR only, of course. The Panthers play Tampa Bay in Week 16. The Buccaneers allow the fewest rushing yards per game (61.2) to opposing running backs but the seventh-most receiving yards and the second-most receptions. Opposing backs have scored more than 12 PPR Fantasy points per game on this defense in the passing game alone.
Even if they’re without Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, and Mike Evans, I would expect Tampa to be playing from ahead, which means Abdullah should again play over 50% of the snaps. And he should again be a good flex at worst.
Tevin Coleman is the best Jets RB in Week 16 against Jacksonville
The Case: Boy did I get fooled on this one. When Ty Johnson was on the inactive list Sunday morning, I assumed Michael Carter was about to be unleashed. Especially since the Jets had told us to expect a big role for Carter in his first game back. Instead, he saw eight carries and two targets in a one-score loss to the Dolphins. What’s worse, he was outplayed by Tevin Coleman, who had the same number of carries but more than double the yardage.
The Verdict: Don’t believe it
I got duped, but we can still go back to our priors, running backs coming off long absences often get eased back in. This was a very weird game where Zach Wilson only threw 23 passes and the Jets only ran 53 offensive plays. It’s hard to make too much of it. But what should probably do is try to avoid any of the Jets running backs in Week 16 against Jacksonville. I’d still prefer Carter over Coleman, but I really don’t want my Fantasy season to come down to either one. Or anyone on the Jets for that matter.
Russell Gage is a legitimate must-start WR
The Case: The transformation of Russell Gage has been one of the most surprising stories of the past month. In his last four games, he has caught 29 passes for 347 yards and two touchdowns. With four games left to go in Week 15 he is the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy scoring since Week 12. Even on a per-game basis, he’s been a clear No. 1 ride receiver averaging nearly 19 PPR Fantasy points per game. He’s a no-doubt, must-start wide receiver.
The Verdict: Believe it
This is not the Russell Gage we’ve come accustomed to. He twice ‘Mossed’ defensive backs in Week 15, including once in the end zone. He’s seeing multiple targets downfield every week and playing outside more than he ever has. Over the last month, he’s averaging nearly 12 yards per catch and catching 80% of his targets.
There may be a little regression to come for Gage, but it’s hard to believe it’s going to come in Week 16 against the Detroit Lions. He’s a borderline top-12 wide receiver this week and a must-start in all formats.
James Conner is just a flex again
The Case: The Arizona Cardinals laid an absolute egg in Week 15, getting their doors blown off by the Detroit Lions. And while I wouldn’t blame anyone for being disgusted with the entire team, I mostly think Kyler Murray will bounce back next week. I’m not so sure about the running backs. Conner and Chase Edmonds had a nearly perfectly even split in terms of snaps and touches in Edmonds first game back. This means you can’t trust either of them as more than a touchdown-dependent flex.
The Verdict: Believe it
I was really hopeful Conner had proven enough in Edmonds’ absence to hold on to his role as a feature back. Instead, his workload was almost identical to Carter’s. Eight carries, two targets, and just a 44% snap share. Generally, I would anticipate the Cardinals would have more rush attempts than they did in this game, but I’m not so sure in Week 16 against a Colts defense that just shut down Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots run game. Conner is a high-end flex, and I’d still rather start him more than Conner, but he’s no longer a must-start running back.
