Saturday, January 22, 2022

NFL Week 17 odds, picks: Cowboys extend NFL-best ATS mark vs. Cards; Falcons cover massive spread vs. Bills

Just two weeks remain in the 2021 regular season and it still feels like all the drama is still in front of us. Only one team in the AFC has officially punched its ticket into the playoffs, so there is potential for some serious movement in that conference. The NFC playoff picture is a bit clearer, but there is still potential for some shakeup with the remaining wild-card spots up for grabs. Naturally, all of these high-stakes games make it that much more exciting to bet on, which is what we’ll be focusing on here today. 

We were again above .500 with our picks in the Week 16 slate, albeit not by much as we went 9-7 over the entire slate. We’ll look to improve upon those totals and get a bigger payout now that we’re turning out full attention to Week 17, beginning with our five locks of the week. 

2021 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 46-30-4

ATS: 118-118-4

ML: 149-90-1

Giants at Bears

Latest Odds: Chicago Bears -6

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It hasn’t been pretty for the Giants over the last month. They come into Week 17 on a four-game losing streak where the quarterback play has been subpar following Daniel Jones‘ season-ending neck injury. Last week, Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm combined for just 108 yards passing and will now catch a Bears team that has been pesky as of late. Chicago is coming off a solid road win against the Seahawks and David Montgomery has been a versatile threat out of the backfield. On top of his abilities as a runner, he’s also averaging 43.5 receiving yards over the last month. This season, New York is giving up roughly 125.3 yards on the ground (26th in the NFL). Chicago could be able to win this game by a touchdown, especially against a Giants club that is under .500 ATS on the road this year. 

Projected score: Chicago 24, Giants 17

The pick: Bears -6

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Lions at Seahawks

Latest Odds: Seattle Seahawks -6.5

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The Lions are the gift that keeps on giving this season, so why not go back to the well? Detroit is 10-5 ATS, which is tied for the third-best mark in the entire NFL. Seattle is coming off of a loss to Chicago last week that officially eliminated them from postseason contention, so we could be seeing a not-so-motivated team take the field on Sunday. While the Seahawks have historically enjoyed a strong home-field advantage, they are just 3-4 ATS at Lumen Field this year. Meanwhile, the Lions are 5-3 ATS on the road entering Week 17 and are 6-1 ATS over their last seven games. 

Projected score: Seattle 23, Lions 20

The pick: Lions +7

Vikings at Packers

Latest Odds: Green Bay Packers -6.5

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Getting the Packers laying less than seven is almost an auto-bet at this point. Yes, they failed to cover against Cleveland last week but more often than not Green Bay has been kind to bettors this season. Entering Week 17, Aaron Rodgers‘ club is 11-4 ATS (second-best in the NFL), and is 6-1 ATS at home (best in the NFL). With the No. 1 seed still up for grabs, the Packers won’t be going on cruise control en-route to the postseason anytime soon. That’s bad news for a Minnesota team that couldn’t fend off the Rams last week, despite picking off Matthew Stafford three times.  

Projected score: Packers 30, Vikings 21

The pick: Packers -6.5

Cardinals at Cowboys

Latest Odds: Dallas Cowboys -5.5

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The Dallas Cowboys made one heck of a statement last Sunday night. After the prior events of Week 16 clinched the division for Jerry Jones’ club, they took the field against Washington and went nuclear. While it may be too much to expect a similar outcome in Week 17, they should be able to clear the 5.5-point spread against a reeling Arizona club. The Cardinals have lost four straight and have completely lost their once firm grip on the NFC. In last week’s loss to the Colts, they struggled mightily on special teams, gave up a safety, and couldn’t string along any positive drives together. If that continues, Dallas — who is an NFL-best 12-3 ATS this season — will leave them in the dust. 

Projected score: Cowboys 33, Cardinals 27

The pick: Cowboys -5.5

Falcons at Bills

Latest Odds: Buffalo Bills -14.5

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This is more of a gut-check bet than anything. After an emotional win against the Patriots up in Foxborough last week, Buffalo could be in for a bit of a letdown. I don’t expect them to lose this game by any stretch, but they could keep it within the two-score margin that the oddsmakers have given Atlanta. The Falcons are 5-3 ATS as the road team this season and have moved the ball much better on the road (5.4 yards per play) than at home (4.7 yards per play) on offense. As for Buffalo, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a straight-up win and are only 3-3-1 ATS at home this season. 

Projected score: Bills 30, Falcons 17

The pick: Falcons +14.5

Rest of the Bunch

Chiefs at Bengals

Projected score: Chiefs 30, Bengals 24

The pick: Chiefs -5

Dolphins at Titans

Projected score: Titans 27, Dolphins 20

The pick: Titans -3.5

Raiders at Colts

Projected score: Colts 28, Raiders 21

The pick: Colts -6.5

Jaguars at Patriots

Projected score: Patriots 27, Jaguars 10

The pick: Patriots -15.5

Buccaneers at Jets

Projected score: Buccaneers 33, Jets 17

The pick: Buccaneers -13

Eagles at Washington

Projected score: Washington 23, Eagles 21

The pick: Washington +3.5

Rams at Ravens

Projected score: Rams 27, Ravens 23

The pick: Rams -3.5

Broncos at Chargers

Projected score: Chargers 27, Broncos 21 

The pick: Chargers -5.5

Texans at 49ers

Projected score: 49ers 28, Texans 17

The pick: Texans +12.5

Panthers at Saints

Projected score: Saints 27, Panthers 17

The pick: Saints -6.5

Browns at Steelers

Projected score: Steelers 23, Browns 21

The pick: Steelers +3

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