On a night with only four scheduled NBA games, the eyes of the league will be on Ball Arena in Denver. Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors visit Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in a high-profile clash, and both clubs have lofty aspirations. The Warriors are 27-7 overall and 11-4 in road games this season, with the Nuggets holding a 17-16 overall mark and a record of 8-6 in home games. Draymond Green (protocols), Klay Thompson (Achilles), James Wiseman (knee) and Damion Lee (protocols) are out for Golden State. Aaron Gordon (hamstring), Monte Morris (knee) and Austin Rivers (thumb) are listed as questionable for Denver, with Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and P.J. Dozier ruled out.
Tipoff is at 9:30 p.m. ET in Denver. Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as the 5.5-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 212.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Nuggets odds. Before making any Nuggets vs. Warriors picks or NBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 11 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 48-24 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Nuggets, and just revealed its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Nuggets vs. Warriors:
- Warriors vs. Nuggets spread: Warriors -5.5
- Warriors vs. Nuggets over-under: 212.5 points
- Warriors vs. Nuggets money line: Warriors -220, Nuggets +180
- GSW: The Warriors are 8-6-1 against the spread in road games
- DEN: The Nuggets are 6-8 against the spread in home games
Featured Game | Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors
Why the Warriors can cover
Golden State’s offense is excellent, scoring nearly 1.12 points per possession, and ranking in the top five of the NBA in 2-point accuracy, 3-pointers per game, assists, assist percentage and fast-break points. The Warriors are even better on defense, though, and Golden State leads the league in point differential as a result. Opponents are scoring only 101.6 points per 100 possessions against the Warriors this season, and Golden State leads the NBA in defensive efficiency.
The Warriors are holding opponents to only 42.7 percent shooting from the field and 32.6 percent shooting from 3-point range, also leading the NBA in assists allowed at 21.4 per game. Golden State also ranks in the top five of the NBA in defensive rebound rate (74.6 percent), second-chance points allowed (12.0 per game), fast-break points allowed (11.3 per game), steals (9.3 per game), and turnovers created (15.6 per game) this season.
Why the Nuggets can cover
The Nuggets traditionally have a strong home-court advantage in Denver, and the team has two-way strengths. The Nuggets are shooting 46.1 percent from the floor, ranking in the top 10 of the NBA, and Denver is a top-six team in 2-point shooting (54.5 percent) and assists (25.6 per game). The Nuggets are above-average in ball security, committing only 13.6 turnovers per game, and Golden State is just No. 25 in the NBA in preventing free-throw attempts on defense.
On the opposite side, Denver is holding opponents to just 33.9 percent from 3-point distance. The Nuggets are also in the top eight of the NBA in free-throw prevention and defensive rebound rate, with the league’s best mark in preventing second-chance points (10.8 per game). The Warriors are No. 27 in the NBA in free-throw accuracy and No. 29 in turnovers per game, opening the door for effective defense on Denver’s side.
How to make Nuggets vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 213 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.