Monday, January 24, 2022

2022 Sugar Bowl prediction, odds, spread, line: Ole Miss vs. Baylor picks, best bets from model on 43-30 run

The Ole Miss Rebels are riding a four-game winning streak after defeating Mississippi State 31-21 in this year’s Egg Bowl matchup on Nov. 25. The Baylor Bears also have recorded four consecutive victories as they edged then-No. 5 Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 4. The eighth-ranked Rebels (10-2) and No. 7 Bears (11-2) both look to end their season with a five-game run when they meet on Saturday, Jan. 1 in the 2022 Sugar Bowl.

Kickoff at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans is set for 8:45 p.m. ET. The Rebels are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Ole Miss vs. Baylor odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 57. Before making any Baylor vs. Ole Miss picks and college football predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also entered the third week of the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-30 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Ole Miss vs. Baylor, and just locked in its Sugar Bowl picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for Baylor vs. Ole Miss: 

  • Ole Miss vs. Baylor spread: Rebels -1.5 
  • Ole Miss vs. Baylor over-under: 57 points 
  • Ole Miss vs. Baylor money line: Rebels -120, Bears +100 
  • MISS: The Rebels are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight bowl games 
  • BAY: The Bears are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall contests

Featured Game | Ole Miss Rebels vs. Baylor Bears

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Why Ole Miss can cover

Matt Corral announced prior to the Egg Bowl that he would be entering the 2022 NFL Draft, but he has decided to play one final game for the Rebels. That was great news for the Rebels as the junior quarterback has put together another fine season. Corral has completed 68.4 percent of his pass attempts and is 16th in the nation with 3,339 yards — two more than his total from last year.

Corral has thrown for 20 touchdowns and has run for 11 scores, making him one of only four FBS quarterbacks with 20 passing and 10 rushing TDs this season. His running ability helped make Ole Miss the only school in the nation with four 500-yard rushers. Jerrion Ealy leads the Rebels with 703 yards, fellow junior Snoop Conner has recorded 605 and Corral has amassed 597 while sophomore Henry Parrish Jr. has racked up 542.

Why Baylor can cover

The Bears’ ground attack has been even better than Ole Miss’ thanks to Abram Smith. The club is 10th in the nation with 2,791 rushing yards — 100 more than the Rebels, with Smith registering 1,429 of them to rank eighth in the country. The senior has recorded 12 of Baylor’s 28 touchdowns on the ground and posted eight 100-yard performances while falling three yards shy of a ninth on Oct. 2 at Oklahoma State. 

Baylor has another dangerous backfield option in senior Trestan Ebner, who has run for 763 yards and a pair of TDs while also hauling in two scoring passes. He hopes to catch another in the Sugar Bowl from Gerry Bohanon, who is expected to return after missing two games with a hamstring injury. The junior quarterback started the first 11 games of the season and threw for 2,160 yards with 17 touchdowns while also running for nine scores.

How to make Ole Miss vs. Baylor picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the point total. In fact, it says neither starting quarterback throws two touchdown passes. It also has generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model’s Sugar Bowl pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Baylor vs. Ole Miss in the 2022 Sugar Bowl? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Ole Miss vs. Baylor spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up almost $3,600 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.

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