Saturday, January 22, 2022

Sham Stakes odds, expert prediction 2022: Horse racing insider who nailed Kentucky Derby reveals picks

One west coast-based horse will emerge as a leading contender for the Kentucky Derby when five 3-year-olds leave the starting gate in the 2022 Sham Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, Calif. Over the years the Sham has regularly produced top contenders for the country’s top races, including last year with eventual Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Life Is Good and two years ago with eventual Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Authentic. 

This year Rockefeller, who is trained by Bob Baffert, is listed as the 8-5 morning-line favorite in the 2022 Sham Stakes odds. Meanwhile Newgrange, who also is trained by Baffert, is getting 2-1 odds in the Sham Stakes 2022 field of five. Post time is 6:05 p.m. ET. With five inexperienced three-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you’ll want to see what racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any Sham Stakes 2022 picks.

Few people in racing are as connected as Yu. An on-air host and reporter who has provided racing analysis for TVG, HRTV and the Breeders’ Cup, Yu has spent a lifetime in racing. Prior to her television career, she worked for trainers Steve Asmussen and Ron Moquett. She also is married to Santa Anita-based trainer Ryan Hanson.

In the 2011 Kentucky Derby, she correctly tabbed Animal Kingdom to win at a hefty 21-1. In the 2017 Breeders’ Cup, she nailed 11-1 long shot Wuheida to win the Filly and Mare Turf. In a wide-open 2021 Kentucky Derby field, she gave out Medina Spirit as the winner at 12-1.

Now, Yu has handicapped the 2022 Sham Stakes field, made her picks and constructed her bets. You can only see them here.

Top 2022 Sham Stakes predictions

One surprise: Yu is mostly fading Rockefeller even though he is the favorite, at 8-5 on the morning line, and the only graded stakes winner in the field. A son of Medaglia d’Oro, Rockefeller rebounded from a fourth place finish in the American Pharoah Stakes two starts ago to win the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes at Belmont on Nov. 7. In that race he set slow fractions and edged away to win by 2¾ lengths.

But Rockefeller has won both of his races when setting the pace, and after watching one of his workouts, Yu is not convinced he can win while stalking the pace. “In a workout from last month, he stalked off his workmate, and while he delivered a strong time, he was encouraged and pushed along to pass his mate,” she says. “This concerns me enough to not stick him on top.” Yu prefers two horses over Rockefeller.

How to make 2022 Sham Stakes picks

Yu’s top pick is a horse who is “experienced, versatile and classy.” She also is high on a horse who “has all the traits to make him dangerous.” Yu is including these horses in her 2022 Sham Stakes bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.

So what horse wins the Sham Stakes 2022? What “dangerous” horse is a must-back? And how has Yu constructed her wagers? Check out the latest Sham Stakes odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Sham Stakes.

2022 Sham Stakes odds

Program # Horse Odds
1 Mackinnon 3-1
2 Oviatt Class 7-2
3 Newgrange 2-1
4 Rockefeller 8-5
5 Degree of Risk 12-1

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