The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers will finish up Sunday’s action in Week 17 when these NFC North rivals go head-to-head in prime time. Aaron Rodgers‘ club has already secured the division title but is still vying for the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Vikings are looking to keep their postseason hopes alive with a road win at Lambeau Field. Minnesota was able to outlast the Packers back in Week 11, but they’ll now be heading into this latest matchup without quarterback Kirk Cousins, who landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Friday.
In this space, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this matchup has on deck for us. We’ll be taking a look at how the lines have shifted throughout the week leading into Sunday night and, of course, give you our picks for this game.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
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Latest Odds: Green Bay Packers -13
The Packers opened as 7-point favorites before that line moved down to 6.5 for part of the week. It fluctuated between 6.5 and 7 leading into Friday morning, but then skyrocketed following the news that Cousins would be out due to COVID-19. When the line reopened, it had the Packers as 13-point favorites.
The pick: Packers -13. Congrats if you were early on this and got the Packers at less than a touchdown. For those looking at this line now, 13 points should still be a sufficient number to lay. Entering Week 17, Green Bay is 11-4 ATS (second-best in the NFL), and 6-1 ATS at Lambeau Field (best home ATS record in the NFL). Yes, that one failed cover came last week against Cleveland, but Aaron Rodgers and company have largely been extremely kind to bettors when they take the field at home. This Packers squad still has plenty to play for despite locking up the division, as the No. 1 seed is still up for grabs, so they won’t be mailing it in over the final two weeks. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s defense has been pretty soft as of late and backup quarterback Sean Mannion, who is expected to start, had been on the COVID-19 list since Friday.
Key trend: Vikings are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against the NFC.
Unlike the spread that has volleyed a bit, the total has seen a steady decline throughout the week. After opening at 48 and jumping up to 48.5 coming out of Sunday, the total has fallen over two points to 46 as of Friday.
The pick: Over 42.5. Even with a backup quarterback under center for Minnesota, I lean over on this number. Neither defense is particularly dominant right now. The Packers are giving up 28.8 points per game over their last five games, while Minnesota is giving up 26 points a game over its last five heading into Week 17. A victory over the Bears where they gave up just nine points brings that number down for the Vikings, but they still gave up 370 yards of offense in that winning effort.
Key trend: Over is 5-1 in the Vikings’ last six games.