Wednesday, January 19, 2022

NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, best bets, predictions for Week 18, 2021: Model backing Buccaneers, Seahawks

As the NFL season winds down, several of the teams on the Week 18 NFL schedule are expected to make coaching changes. One matchup featuring two coaches that could be on the hot seat takes place in the NFC North when Chicago visits Minnesota. The Bears are 3.5-point underdogs in the latest Week 18 NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The Jacksonville Jaguars have already fired their head coach, and are among the week’s biggest underdogs at +15.5 when they host their AFC South rivals, the Indianapolis Colts.

Are teams that are in coaching purgatory better or worse to include in your Week 18 NFL bets? Between the three teams mentioned, Chicago was the only team to win or cover against the spread last week. All of the Week 18 NFL lines are listed below and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 18 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,200 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 18 of the 2021 season on an incredible 135-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 18 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 18 NFL predictions

One of the model’s strongest Week 18 NFL picks is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers cover as eight-point favorites at home over Carolina on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. The Panthers have tried everything in their power to disrupt the NFC South and make a playoff push, but it simply hasn’t worked. Panthers head coach Matt Rhule heads into Week 18 with the same 5-11 record he finished with last season, stirring speculation about his longevity in the role.

When the teams played just two weeks ago, Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady needed just 232 passing yards on 18 completions to keep the offense on track en route to a 32-6 win. Bucs running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn proved an unlikely star, and he turned seven carries into 70 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Panthers haven’t covered the spread in any of their last six games.

The model projects Tampa Bay as one of the top NFL picks in Week 18, and has the Bucs covering the spread in nearly 60 percent of all simulations. Tampa Bay has also scored at least 30 points in five of its last seven games, supporting the case for the over to also hit over 70 percent of the time.

Another one of its Week 18 NFL predictions: The Seahawks (+6.5) stay within the spread against the Cardinals on the road in another 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff on Sunday. Seattle has excelled in recent weeks in the one area where Arizona has a true weakness and that’s the run game. Seattle’s Rashaad Penny leads the NFL in rushing yards (481) over the last four weeks and has topped 130 yards in three of his last four games. Meanwhile, Arizona ranks 21st in yards per rush allowed and has allowed two of its last three opponents to rush for over 125 yards.

Having an effective ground game should allow Seattle to control the clock and keep Arizona’s offense off the field. The Cardinals are already in a dry spell offensively, and have averaged just 19 points per game over their last four compared to 28.6 over their first dozen contests. The defense also isn’t the opportunistic unit it was earlier in the year as Arizona has just two total takeaways over its last four games.

The model has taken all of that into account and is projecting Penny rushes for 90 yards, while Seattle has nearly 150 yards on the ground as a team. SportsLine’s model has this as a closer game than what the spread implies and it has Arizona winning by five points. Thus, Seattle (+6.5) is projected to cover almost 60 percent of the time and simulations also say the Under (48) hits in well over 50 percent of simulations.

How to make Week 18 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 18 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So which NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,200 since its inception, and find out.

Week 18 NFL odds, spreads, lines

Saturday, Jan. 8

Chiefs at Broncos (+10, 44)

Featured Game | Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Cowboys at Eagles (+5.5, 42.5)

Featured Game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Sunday, Jan. 9

Packers at Lions (+11, 46.5)

Featured Game | Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Bears at Vikings (-3, 44.5)

Featured Game | Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Colts at Jaguars (+15.5, 44)

Featured Game | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Titans at Texans (+10.5, 43)

Featured Game | Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Washington Football Team at Giants (+6.5, 38.5)

Featured Game | New York Giants vs. Washington Football Team

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Steelers at Ravens (-4, 42)

Featured Game | Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Bengals at Browns (-3, 43)

Featured Game | Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Patriots at Dolphins (+6.5, 40)

Featured Game | Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Jets at Bills (-17, 44)

Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Panthers at Buccaneers (-8, 42.5)

Featured Game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Saints at Falcons (+4.5, 40)

Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Seahawks at Cardinals (-6.5, 48)

Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

49ers at Rams (-5.5, 44.5)

Featured Game | Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Chargers at Raiders (+3, 48.5) 

Featured Game | Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

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