Greetings fellow gamblers, it’s Chris Bengel in for Tom Fornelli on this Monday because he is in Indianapolis for Alabama vs. Georgia tonight. However, even though Tom isn’t here, he’d never leave you all out in the cold on one of the biggest sports nights of the entire year.
With that in mind, here are Tom’s best bets for Monday’s College Football Playoff National Championship game.
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As Tom mentions, this is a difficult matchup to handicap. These are the two best teams in college football and they’ve shown that all season long. They’re both so talented on each side of the football and it’s truly hard to pick a favorite. On one hand, it’s tough to bet against Nick Saban and the powerhouse of a roster that the Crimson Tide possess. On the other hand, it’s tough to beat a team twice in one season — and Georgia does have arguably the most dominant defense in college football.
Personally, I think there’s more value on a number of the prop bets and I’ve got one for you, along with some action in the NBA, just below. Let’s dive into the picks.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
🏈Alabama vs. Georgia, 8 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Jameson Williams Over 110.5 receiving yards (-110): As I mentioned, there’s quite a bit of value in several of the prop bets for Monday’s national title game. This is one that I’m very confident will cash for us. Alabama star wide receiver Jameson Williams is one of the most electric playmakers in the country and he’s displayed it time and time again.
Throughout the 2021 season, Williams has averaged 107.6 receiving yards-per-game and has recorded at least 123 receiving yards in five of his last eight games. Over his past seven games, Williams has recorded at least six receptions and the targets have been plentiful, since fellow star wideout John Metchie had his season end due to a torn ACL. So, 110.5 receiving yards is a very high number, but, considering the big-play potential of Williams, it’s a number that he can easily eclipse.
Key Trend: Williams has registered at least 123 receiving yards in five of his last eight games
💰 The Picks
Bucks at Hornets, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA TV
Latest Odds: Under 236
The Pick: Under 235.5 points (-110): — It’s no secret that the Bucks and Hornets are two of the most dangerous scoring offenses in the league. The Hornets enter Monday’s contest averaging 115.5 points-per-game, which is good for second in the NBA. Meanwhile, the Bucks are averaging 112.1 points-per-game, which is right behind the Hornets for third in the league.
Sure, these offenses have no problem putting a ton of points on the board, but this total is just too high for me.
Over the Bucks’ last four road games, the under is 4-0 when they’re facing a team with a winning record at home. The Hornets have an 11-5 mark at home this season and the two teams combined for 220 points in a 114-106 Hornets win over the Bucks on Saturday. Pace of play is definitely a huge factor for the Hornets, as they run a fast-paced offense. This one could come somewhat close to going over, but ultimately, I believe that it’s just too high of a number.
Key Trend: The under is 6-1 in the Hornets’ last seven games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game
76ers at Rockets, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA.TV
The Pick: Joel Embiid Over 45.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-110) — In the absence of Ben Simmons this season, Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid has carried the team on his back. Entering Monday, Embiid owns lofty averages of 26.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while shooting a career-best 38.9 percent from three. Over his last eight games, Embiid has had at least 46 points, rebounds and assists in five of those contests. In addition, Philadelphia has won seven of those games, so I also don’t mind the spread with the Sixers at -10 points.
During Embiid’s recent stretch of success, he also has dominated the Rockets. Last Monday, Embiid absolutely abused them to the tune of 31 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists. The Sixers star connected on 12-of-20 shots from the field and drilled just one three, so he was able to do the bulk of his damage in the paint. Philadelphia also won the game by 20 points, so even if Embiid doesn’t play somewhere in the 40 minutes range, he should still have plenty of opportunities to bypass this number.
Key Trend: Embiid has gone over 46 points, rebounds, and assists in four of his last six games