Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Warriors vs. Grizzlies prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA picks, Jan. 11 best bets from model on 52-28 run

The hottest team in the NBA faces an intriguing challenge on Tuesday evening at FedEx Forum. Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies host Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors, with Memphis entering on a league-best nine-game winning streak. The Grizzlies are 28-14, with the Warriors bringing a 30-9 record into this matchup. Draymond Green (calf) and James Wiseman (knee) are out for the Warriors, with Gary Payton II (ankle) and Otto Porter Jr. (shoulder) listed as questionable. Steven Adams (protocols) and Yves Pons (ankle) are listed as questionable for the Grizzlies, with Dillon Brooks (ankle) ruled out.

Tipoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Memphis. Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as the 2.5-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 218.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds. Before locking in any Grizzlies vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model entered Week 13 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 52-28 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Grizzlies, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Grizzlies vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies spread: Warriors -2.5
  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies over-under: 218.5 points
  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies money line: Warriors -135, Grizzlies +115
  • GSW: The Warriors are 9-8-1 against the spread in road games
  • MEM: The Grizzlies are 12-10 against the spread in home games

Featured Game | Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State owns the NBA’s best record and best net rating, out-scoring opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions, and those numbers could improve with Klay Thompson back from an Achilles injury. The Warriors are averaging 27.9 assists per game, No. 2 in the NBA, and Golden State assists on more than 69 percent of field goals to lead the NBA. The Warriors are in the top 10 of the league in offensive rebound rate (27.7 percent) and fast-break points (15.0 per game), with elite marks in field-goal percentage (46.8 percent), 3-point percentage (35.9 percent) and 2-point percentage (56.1 percent). While the offense is potent, the defense is even better, leading the NBA in giving up only 101.9 points per 100 possessions. 

Opponents are shooting only 42.5 percent against the Warriors, the best defensive mark in the league, and that includes a 49.8 percent clip on 2-point shots. Golden State is No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed in the paint (41.3 per game), with top-eight marks in defensive rebound rate (74 percent), second-chance points allowed (12.3 per game) and fast-break points allowed (11.0 per game). No team allows fewer assists (21.4 per game) than the Warriors, and the Grizzlies are in the bottom five of the NBA in free-throw accuracy this season.

Why the Grizzlies can cover

Memphis is flying high on offense, scoring more than 1.12 points per possession. The Grizzlies are dominating in specific categories, including No. 1 marks in the NBA in offensive rebound rate (33.2 percent), second-chance points (17.7 per game) and points in the paint (55.3 per game). Memphis is No. 2 in the league in fast-break points, averaging 16.3 per game, and the Grizzlies are in the top ten in free-throw attempts (21.5 per game), assists (25.3 per game) and turnovers (13.5 per game). 

On defense, the Grizzlies are giving up only 108.2 points per possession, significantly better than the NBA’s average. Memphis leads the NBA in blocks (6.2 per game) and steals (10.2 per game), with top-eight marks in turnovers (15.3 per game) and 2-point percentage allowed (51 percent). Golden State is second-worst in the NBA in turnover rate, committing a giveaway on 16.0 percent of possessions, and the Grizzlies prevent second-chance opportunities at a top-10 level.

How to make Grizzlies vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 219 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Grizzlies? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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