Sunday, April 2, 2023

Bucks vs. Grizzlies prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA picks, Jan. 19 best bets from model on 56-30 run

The Memphis Grizzlies are red-hot and they face an intriguing challenge on Wednesday evening. Memphis is 12-1 in the last 13 games, improving to 31-15 for the season. The Grizzlies visit the Milwaukee Bucks in a cross-conference matchup, with the Bucks entering at 27-19 after winning the 2021 NBA championship. Jrue Holiday (ankle) is questionable for Milwaukee, with Brook Lopez (back) ruled out. Desmond Bane (protocols), Kyle Anderson (protocols), Dillon Brooks (ankle) and Killian Tillie (protocols) are out for Memphis.

Tipoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. Milwaukee is listed as the 6.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 226 in the latest Bucks vs. Grizzlies odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Grizzlies vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 56-30 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Grizzlies, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Grizzlies vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Grizzlies spread: Bucks -6.5
  • Bucks vs. Grizzlies over-under: 226 points
  • MEM: The Grizzlies are 15-5 against the spread in road games
  • MIL: The Bucks are 8-14 against the spread in home games

Featured Game | Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies

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Why the Grizzlies can cover

Memphis is dominating in recent days, and the Grizzlies currently rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The team’s defensive uptick is noteworthy, including league-leading marks in steals and blocks, but the Grizzlies are still superior on the offensive side. Memphis is scoring 111.7 points per 100 possessions, ranking in the top eight of the NBA. The Grizzlies lead the league in second-chance points (17.5 per game), fast-break points (16.7 per game) and points in the paint (55.7 per game), illustrating the team’s physicality and aggressiveness. 

Memphis is also No. 2 in the NBA in offensive rebound rate, securing 32.7 percent of missed shots. The Grizzlies are in the top 10 of the NBA in assists, averaging 25.2 per game, and Memphis is above-average in free-throw creation (21.5 attempts per game) and turnover prevention (13.5 per game). Milwaukee is solid defensively, but the Bucks are No. 29 in the NBA in 3-pointers allowed, giving the Grizzlies an avenue to attack with regularity.

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee’s defense is strong, as it has been over a multi-season span. The Bucks are allowing fewer than 108 points per 100 possessions, ranking in the top eight of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Opponents are shooting only 43.8 percent from the floor against Milwaukee, with the Bucks allowing 33.9 percent shooting from 3-point distance and fewer than 20 free-throw attempts per game. The Bucks are very good on the glass, securing 73.4 percent of available defensive rebounds, and Milwaukee is in the top 10 of the league in points in the paint allowed (42.3 per game) and fast-break points allowed (11.5 per game). 

Memphis is in the bottom 10 of the league in 3-point accuracy and free-throw accuracy on offense, further bolstering Milwaukee’s defensive projection. On offense, the Bucks are putting up more than 1.11 points per possession, a top-10 figure in the NBA, and 3-point shooting is a big reason. Milwaukee is making 14.3 3-pointers per game, No. 3 in the NBA, and the Bucks are making more than 36 percent of long-range attempts this season.

How to make Grizzlies vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 216 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Grizzlies? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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