It may be the game of the week. This Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round of the playoffs — a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game. It could be a wild, high-scoring affair, as these two teams were the highest-scoring from Super Wild Card Weekend. The Bills dropped 47 points on the rival New England Patriots while the Chiefs sent the Pittsburgh Steelers packing in a 42-21 victory.
The Bills and Chiefs have met four times in the postseason, with each team winning two. Some consider this to be the “real” AFC Championship game, and that may be accurate. The winner of each Bills-Chiefs postseason meeting has gone on to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. It’s Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes. Which one will out-duel the other?
Below, we will examine the different betting angles for this matchup. We will provide picks from both CBS Sports and SportsLine experts on this AFC showdown, as well as a few player props that we view as enticing.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Jan. 23 | Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Odds: Chiefs -1.5, O/U 54
Bills at Chiefs spread picks
Latest Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
“This is a rematch from a game earlier this season that the Bills won on the Chiefs’ home field. The Bills and Chiefs are both coming off impressive victories. Both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen lit up their opponents last week, but this is a big step up for both in terms of defenses. The Bills have the top-ranked defense in the league and built their pass rush in the offseason to beat Mahomes. The Chiefs defense isn’t as good, but it played much better over the course of the second half of the season. The Chiefs love to blitz, which will leave Allen free to run and make throws on the run. I think that will be the difference here. The Bills behind Allen will win a fun shootout for the ages.” — CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco has the Bills pulling off the upset! To read his breakdown of every game, click here.
“We get an AFC Championship Game rematch in the divisional round, as the Chiefs host the Bills. I’m hopeful this is a shootout that goes down to the wire, because both offenses looked unstoppable last weekend. The Bills scored 47 points against the New England Patriots! They scored touchdowns on all seven offensive drives (not including kneel-downs), they averaged 12.3 yards per pass, converted every third down they wanted to and Josh Allen had more touchdown passes than incompletions. Like Allen, Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdowns to go along with 404 yards and one pick in the blowout win over the Steelers. Jerick McKinnon reintroduced himself to the NFL world in a big way, as he accounted for 142 yards of total offense and a touchdown.
“If you recall, the Bills blew out the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 5. Allen had three passing touchdowns in the 38-20 victory, with two of them going for 35-plus yards. Mahomes and the Chiefs remember that loss, and they will get their revenge here in the divisional round.” — CBS Sports’ Jordan Dajani sees the Chiefs avenging their regular-season loss. To read his divisional round column, click here.
“This is arguably the best game on the divisional slate as it’s a rematch of the AFC Championship from a season ago. Both of these quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen threw five touchdowns in their playoff wins last week, so we could be gearing up for a wild shootout. With that in mind, I do think this could be a situation where Buffalo not having star cornerback Tre’Davious White finally comes back to bite them. Sure, they didn’t need White against a Mac Jones-led Patriots team last week, but they certainly could use a talent like that to slow down Mahomes.
“Because this line is under the field goal threshold at just Chiefs -2, I don’t mind laying the points here with Kansas City. Andy Reid’s team has been stellar at home as of late, going 5-0 ATS in their previous five games at Arrowhead. The Chiefs are also 6-1 ATS in their last six home playoff games.” CBS Sports’ Tyler Sullivan likes the Chiefs to advance to the AFC Championship for the fourth straight year. To read his picks column, click here.
Before you make Bills vs. Chiefs picks or any other NFL predictions, you need to see which side SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein is on. This season he has been on fire. Hartstein is 70-46-1 in his last 117 NFL sides, for a profit of more than $1800. In addition, Hartstein has gone an astounding 23-8 in his last 31 picks involving Kansas City, returning $1,400 to $100 bettors! Anyone who has followed him is way up. You can see who Larry is taking in the Bills-Chiefs matchup over at SportsLine, and you can also get his top player prop pick for the game, along with more picks from SportsLine’s top NFL experts, in this featured article.
Bills at Chiefs total picks
Latest Odds: Over 54
“The Bills and Chiefs finished the regular season third and fourth respectively in points scored per game. These two teams combined for 89 points last week, as the offenses had no problems scoring points. My lean is to the Over as well, as these offenses have combined for at least 58 points in their last two meetings. I imagine it will be close, but that fourth-quarter field goal to push the total to 55 will feel nice.” — CBS Sports’ Jordan Dajani
Before you make any Chiefs vs. Bills picks and predictions, you’ll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters the divisional round of the 2021 NFL playoffs on an incredible 137-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Now, it has simulated Bills vs. Chiefs 10,000 times and the results are in. You can see what it has to say over at SportsLine.
Josh Allen touchdown passes: Over 1.5 (-190). OK yes, it’s juicy. You don’t have to play it by itself, put it into a same-game parlay or just a parlay. Green Bay Packers moneyline and Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns is +114. Isn’t the Caesars Sportsbook app great?
Stefon Diggs receiving yards: Over 71.5 (-115). A big number, but Diggs is a big playmaker. He’s averaging 72.1 receiving yards per game this season, and he had 69 yards when these two teams faced off in the regular season on just two catches. When the Bills and Chiefs faced off in the playoffs last year, Diggs caught six passes for 77 yards. Allen made it a point to target him, and he should again this weekend.
Harrison Butker made extra points: Over 2.5 (-130). I live and die by kicking props, and I’ve been living well as of late. You can read this prop as “do the Chiefs score three touchdowns during the game in situations where they won’t have to go for two?” I say yes. Butker had to kick six extra points last week against the Steelers. If you think the Bills win, then take Tyler Bass Over 2.5 made extra points at -135. If you’re a strong believer in the Over, you could put these two in a same-game parlay.