An Eastern Conference clash is set for Wednesday night as the Miami Heat host the New York Knicks at FTX Arena. Miami (30-17) boasts the best record in the East and also the conference’s best home record at 16-5. The Knicks (23-25) are 11-11 away from home and have lost five straight games in Miami. Derrick Rose (ankle) is out for New York, with Nerlens Noel (knee) and Mitchell Robinson (ankle) questionable, while Kyle Lowry (personal) is sidelined for the Heat.
Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Heat as 5.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 202.5 in the latest Knicks vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Knicks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 15 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 58-32 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Knicks vs. Heat and locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Knicks:
- Knicks vs. Heat spread: Heat -5.5
- Knicks vs. Heat over-under: 202.5 points
- Knicks vs. Heat money line: Heat -230, Knicks +190
- NYK: The Knicks are 12-10 against the spread in road games
- MIA: The Heat are 13-8 against the spread in home games
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Why the Knicks can cover
New York is a defense-first team, but the offense has strong areas. The Knicks are good on the offensive glass, securing 28.7 percent of missed shots, and that leads to 14.3 second-chance points per game. New York also ranks in the top 10 in 3-pointers per game (13.0), 3-point accuracy (35.8 percent) and turnovers (13.5 per game). Miami is No. 30 in the NBA in blocked shots on defense, with a bottom-five mark in 3-pointers allowed.
On the opposite end, the Knicks are holding opponents to 1.09 points per possession, with top-five marks in field goal percentage allowed (44.0 percent), second-chance points allowed (11.9 per game) and points in the paint allowed (41.5 per game). New York is in the top 10 in free throw attempts allowed (20.6 per game) and defensive rebound rate (73.4 percent), with the Knicks holding opponents to just 11.3 fast break points per game.
Why the Heat can cover
Miami is one of the most balanced teams in the league, evident by it ranking third in offensive rating (113.1) and eighth in defensive rating (108.4). That makes the Heat one of just three teams to rank among the top eight in both, and they’ve achieved this ranking despite their best players missing time. Most of those players are now back in the lineup, and a healthy Heat team is hard to contend with. Miami has covered in eight of its last 10 games while winning outright in seven of its last 10.
No team does a better job on the glass than the Heat, who have allowed the fewest offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds and total rebounds. Limiting offensive rebounds prevents second-chance opportunities while containing defensive boards prevents teams from having fastbreak opportunities. With the Knicks ranking 27th in both points per game (103.9) and field-goal percentage (43.6 percent), Miami controlling the glass will make it even tougher for New York to put points on the scoreboard.
How to make Heat vs. Knicks picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 209 total points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Knicks vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.