Thursday, May 26, 2022

Warriors vs. Timberwolves prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA picks, Jan. 27 best bets from model on 58-32 run

The Minnesota Timberwolves face an intriguing challenge on Thursday evening as they host Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors. Minnesota brings a 24-23 record and an 11-13 road mark into this matchup. The Warriors are 22-4 at Chase Center and 35-13 overall this season. Draymond Green (back), Andre Iguodala (hip) and James Wiseman (knee) are out for Golden State. Patrick Beverley (ankle) is questionable for Minnesota.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a six-point home favorite for this 10 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 229.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Timberwolves odds. Before locking in any Timberwolves vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 15 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 58-32 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Wolves, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Wolves vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Timberwolves spread: Warriors -6
  • Warriors vs. Timberwolves over-under: 229.5 points
  • Warriors vs. Timberwolves money line: Warriors -250, Timberwolves +205
  • MINN: The Wolves are 13-11 against the spread in road games
  • GSW: The Warriors are 16-8-2 against the spread in home games

Featured Game | Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

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Why the Timberwolves can cover

Minnesota’s defense is operating at a high level this season, giving up fewer than 1.09 points per possession. The Wolves lead the NBA in turnover creation, forcing 15.9 per game, and Minnesota is near the top of the league in blocked shots (5.9 per game) and steals (8.8 per game). Minnesota is also in the top eight of the NBA in 3-point accuracy allowed (34.0 percent) and points in the paint allowed (44.0 per game), and Golden State is No. 29 in turnover rate on offense and No. 22 in free-throw attempts per game. 

On the other end, the Wolves are excellent on the offensive glass, securing 29.9 percent of missed shots, and Minnesota averages 15.5 second-chance points per game. Both of those rank in the top three of the NBA, and the Wolves are also in the top three in 3-pointers with 14.3 triples per game. Minnesota is above-average in assists per game (24.4) and fast-break points per game (14.0), with Golden State near the bottom of the league in free-throw prevention on defense.

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State has the best defense in the NBA, leading the league in myriad categories on that end of the floor. From there, the Warriors also have a juicy matchup on offense. Golden State is scoring 110.7 points per 100 possessions this season, leading the NBA in assisting on 68.7 percent of field goals. The Warriors are No. 2 in the league in assists, averaging 27.6 per game, and Golden State is No. 2 in shooting efficiency. 

The Warriors are shooting 55.9 percent on 2-point attempts, a top-three mark in the NBA, and Golden State is converting 35.5 percent of 3-point shots. Golden State is in the top-five in fast-break points, averaging nearly 15 per game, and the Warriors create transition opportunities with aggressive defense. The Warriors should also benefit from two notable weaknesses for Minnesota, as the Wolves are last in the NBA in defensive rebound rate and also last in free-throw prevention.

How to make Timberwolves vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 222 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Timberwolves? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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