Monday, March 20, 2023

Celtics vs. Heat prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 NBA picks, Jan. 31 best bets from model on 62-32 run

The Boston Celtics welcome the Miami Heat to TD Garden for an intriguing matchup on Monday. Boston is 26-25 overall this season, and the Celtics are 16-10 in home games. Miami is 32-18 this season, posting a 14-12 record on the road. Romeo Langford (heel) is listed as questionable for Boston. Jimmy Butler (ankle) is questionable for Miami, with Kyle Lowry (personal), Omer Yurtseven (protocols) and Markieff Morris (reconditioning) ruled out.

Boston is listed as a 4.5-point favorite at home for this 7:30 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 208 in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Celtics vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 16 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 62-32 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,500. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -4.5
  • Heat vs. Celtics over-under: 208 points
  • Heat vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -180, Heat +155
  • MIA: The Heat are 15-11 against the spread in road games
  • BOS: The Celtics are 11-141 against the spread in home games

Featured Game | Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

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Why the Heat can cover

Miami is tremendous on both ends of the floor, leading to a top-five net rating (+4.7 points per 100 possessions) in the NBA. While the defense gets a great deal of attention, Miami’s offense is elite, scoring more than 1.12 points per possession. The Heat are No. 4 in the NBA in shooting efficiency, with the No. 1 mark in the league in 3-point accuracy (37.7 percent) and the No. 3 mark in free- throw accuracy (81.1 percent). Miami moves the ball supremely well, ranking No. 3 in assist percentage (65.5 percent) and No. 6 in assists per game (25.8). 

The Heat also put pressure on the glass, securing 29.4 percent of missed shots. That leads to a top-10 mark in second-chance points (14.1 per game), and Miami’s defense should also benefit from Boston’s weaknesses. The Celtics are in the bottom 10 of the NBA in offensive rating, and the Celtics are No. 23 in the NBA in field-goal percentage and No. 23 in the NBA in 3-point percentage. 

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston is very good on the defensive end of the floor, and that is reflected in the numbers. The Celtics are No. 4 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 106.3 points per 100 possessions. Boston leads the league in assists allowed, giving up only 21.7 per game, and the Celtics are in the top three of the NBA in field-goal percentage allowed (43.7 percent), points in the paint allowed (42.0 per game) and blocked shots (5.8 per game). 

Boston is above-average in preventing free-throw attempts (20.6 per game), and opponents are shooting only 34.2 percent from 3-point range against the Celtics. Boston is also good on the glass, allowing opponents to produce only 12.4 second-chance points per game, and Miami has ball security issues on offense. The Heat are No. 27 in the NBA in turnovers, allowing the Celtics to key on contesting shots and potentially create transition opportunities.

How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 213 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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