Saturday, May 21, 2022

Super Bowl 2022 prop picks: Fade Joe Mixon and Target these two Rams wide receivers

There’s a good chance that if you’re watching the Super Bowl (and reading this article), you’ll have some prop bets on the line and why not? This is the biggest game of the season! It’s a culmination not just of the hard work by the players and coaches who made it this far but also a celebration for us Fantasy Football folk. We made it through another amazing season. Nonetheless, it makes sense to use that knowledge we’ve gained throughout the year and win some moolah.

Like anything else in betting or DFS, I can’t stress correlation enough. If you expect the Rams to be playing with a huge lead, it probably doesn’t make sense to take the over on Matthew Stafford passing props. On the contrary, if you think the Bengals win this game handily, fading Joe Mixon probably doesn’t make sense. First, figure out how you think this game will play out and then choose your props accordingly. Personally, I feel it will be a back-and-forth game with the Bengals prevailing in the end. You can find my props to correlate that game flow below.

All odds are posted from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.

Joe Mixon under 92.5 total yards

There are a few things at play here. First and foremost, it’s a very tough matchup for Mixon. The Rams have allowed just 3.65 yards per carry to running backs — the third-lowest in the NFL. They’ve also allowed just one running back to go over this number in their last seven games: Leonard Fournette. Mixon has not been running efficiently, either. He’s been held under four yards per carry in seven of his last eight games and has gone under 92.5 total yards in five of those contests. The only thing that concerns is me is that Mixon has been used more in the passing game recently, averaging 5.8 targets per game over his last five. Regardless, I think the Rams defense sells out to limit Mixon in this spot.

Cooper Kupp over 105.5 receiving yards

Admittedly, this number is high. You should only look to take the over with this prop if you think the game will be competitive with even the Rams playing from behind. If you believe the Rams stomp the Bengals in this game, you should stay away or even look to the under. Kupp has been the best wide receiver in the NFL this season. He’s gone over this number in 13 of 20 games and has 142 or more receiving yards in back-to-back playoff games. You know the targets are going to be there. Between the regular season and postseason, Kupp has a massive 32% target share and why wouldn’t he? Teams make it a focal point to stop Kupp and they still can’t do it. I have the Bengals winning the Super Bowl and think we will see lots of back and forth in this game. If that happens, Kupp is going over.

Want more prop picks? SportsLine’s proven experts reveal their best prop picks for the 2022 Super Bowl.

Tyler Boyd over 40.5 receiving yards

I will admit this one is a bit curious. He’s gone under this number in four straight and under in 11 of 19 games overall. There are a few circumstances that I believe play into Boyd’s favor, however. First up, C.J. Uzomah says he is going to play but I highly doubt he will be 100%, which means he should play fewer snaps and run fewer routes. That leaves more routes in the short-to-intermediate part of the field where Boyd often lives. Second, the Rams play zone defense at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Again, that bodes well for a slot receiver in Boyd who does a lot of his damage in the middle of the field. Lastly, I’m sure the Rams will try and stop Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Whether they are successful in that endeavor is a different story. I think Joe Burrow will need a safety blanket to lean on and that will be Boyd in this matchup.

Odell Beckham Jr. longest reception over 23.5 yards

Beckham has quietly been more involved in the postseason, seeing his target share rise to 24% over the Rams’ last three games. He’s been used in a multitude of ways from the intermediate part of the field, getting behind the defense and even as a focal point in the red zone. Specifically, for this prop, he’s gone over this number in two of three playoff games and it’s a great matchup for him. The Bengals allowed 65 receptions of 20+ yards in the regular season — the third-most in the NFL. They’ve also allowed five more in three playoff games, including two in the Conference Championship against the Chiefs. I’m sure the Bengals will send safety help towards Kupp, which should see Beckham in single coverage quite often. Look for him to break at least one long reception in this matchup. 

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