Sunday, July 14, 2024

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, odds, prediction, field, bets: Golf insider says fade Hideki Matsuyama

Defending champion Bryson DeChambeau can’t play this week, but plenty of other PGA Tour talent will be on display starting Thursday when the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational tees off at Bay Hill. World No. 1 Jon Rahm leads a strong 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational field that includes five of the world’s top 10 players, including 2018 tournament champion Rory McIlroy. Rahm has never played this event, but his length and accuracy make him a major threat. Viktor Hovland, the fourth-ranked player in the world, has won three of his last seven events worldwide. Reigning Master champ Hideki Matsuyama and other players like Sungjae Im and WIll Zalatoris give this field plenty of star power.

Rahm’s well-rounded skill set should be a strong fit for Bay Hill, and he is the 17-2 betting favorite in the latest 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds from Caesars Sportsbook. McIlroy is the second favorite at 12-1, followed by Scottie Scheffler (16-1), Hovland (16-1), Matsuyama (25-1) and Matt Fitzpatrick (28-1). Before you make any 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, be sure to check out the PGA Tour predictions and betting advice from SportsLine golf insider Sal Johnson. 

The esteemed golf insider has been around the game for many years and knows what it takes to win, both on tour and at Bay Hill. Before last year’s event, he pegged DeChambeau as a player who would contend and knew the big hitter’s risky style could pay off on this course.

“Bay Hill is a very good course for him,” Johnson said before the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational, “as he can gamble on a lot of holes and make up a lot of shots.” DeChambeau bombed away and was one of just three players under par in the final round to finish 11-under for his eighth career victory.    

Johnson also had Tyrrell Hatton among his top options before his win at Bay Hill in 2020, and the expert has been on a strong run this season. Before the Mayakoba event in Mexico, Johnson had Hovland among his players to watch, while he predicted Brooks Koepka would miss the cut. Koepka went home early, while Hovland shot 23-under for a four-stroke victory.

Before the Zozo Championship, Johnson tabbed Matsuyama in his best bets, and he was right on the money. Matsuyama shot a final-round 65 and won by five strokes after trailing by one with eight holes to play on Sunday. And at the Sanderson Farms, Johnson nailed Sam Burns as his winner. Anyone who has followed Johnson’s advice has cashed in huge.  

Now Johnson, the first producer of “Inside the PGA Tour” and longtime ABC Sports golf producer who worked with Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer, has released his highly confident 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. The picks from the founder of, the world’s top golf stats database, will definitely surprise you. Johnson’s Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, predictions, and expert analysis are only available at SportsLine.

Top 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational expert picks

In a huge shocker, the golf expert is fading Matsuyama, who has not played well in Florida during his career. The 30-year-old has finished in the top 10 just once in seven starts at Bay Hill, and he only has two in his other 12 appearances in the Sunshine State. His putter is notoriously fickle, and he ranks 152nd in strokes gained putting. He tied for eighth at Phoenix but tied for 30th at the Farmers the previous week and was T-39 at Riviera, so he isn’t in a great stretch. Given all that, Johnson recommends steering in another direction for this week’s tournament. 

On the other hand, Johnson is eager to see what Rahm can do in his first turn around Bay Hill. The Spaniard typically took time off between the WGC event in Mexico and the Players, but the WGC event is off the schedule. Rahm last played at the Genesis, where he posted his worst finish since September, a tie for 21st. He has finished in the top three in two of his six tour events. The 27-year-old leads the tour in strokes gained off the tee and greens in regulation (78 percent). He is third in driving distance (319.6 yards), so he should have little trouble at Bay Hill.   

The expert also can’t wait to see if the 24-year-old Hovland can keep up his torrid pace. The Norwegian has won at Mayakoba, the Hero World Challenge and the Dubai Classic since November. He also tied for fourth at both the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and the Genesis. He missed the cut in Phoenix in his return to the States last month, but he finished at at least 14-under par in four of his six tour events this season. He is averaging 5.73 birdies per round, best on tour, and is eighth in greens in regulation (74.75 percent) and 34th in strokes gained putting.  

How to make 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational golf picks

Johnson is backing a long shot among his picks to win this week at Bay Hill who comes in at around 40-1. This player has been hitting greens and making his putts, and he has piled up top-10 finishes at Bay Hill. “These are the courses where he can win,” Johnson says of this player, and the expert believes he could break through this week. Anyone who backs this underdog at the Arnold Palmer Invitational could cash in big. You can only get Johnson’s PGA picks and expert analysis at SportsLine.

Who wins the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational this week at Bay Hill? Where do Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland finish? And which long shot is a must-back? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Sal Johnson’s full projected leaderboard, picks and analysis for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational, all from the insider who knows what it takes to win, both at Bay Hill and on the PGA Tour, and find out.

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, field, top contenders

Jon Rahm +850

Rory McIlroy +1200

Scottie Scheffler +1600

Viktor Hovland +1600

Hideki Matsuyama +2500

Matt Fitzpatrick +2800

Marc Leishman +3000

Sungjae Im +3000

Will Zalatoris +3300

Tyrrell Hatton +3300

Adam Scott +3300

Paul Casey +4000

Jason Kokrak +4000

Sam Burns +4000

Max Homa +4000

Keith Mitchell +4000

Sergio Garcia +5000

Tommy Fleetwood +5000

Talor Gooch +5000

Gary Woodland +5000

Maverick McNealy +5000

Russell Henley +5000

Jason Day +5500

Corey Conners +6000

Cameron Tringale +5500

Justin Rose +6000

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500

Chris Kirk +6600

Luke List +6600

Cameron Young +6600

Seamus Power +6600

Erik Van Rooyen +7000

Lanto Griffin +7000

Tom Hoge +8000

Kevin Na +8000

Thomas Pieters +8000

Si-Woo Kim +8000

Keegan Bradley +8000

Sepp Straka +8000

Kevin Kisner +10000

Ian Poulter +10000

Lucas Glover +10000

Carlos Ortiz +10000

Patrick Reed +10000

Matthew Wolff +10000

Sebastian Munoz +10000

Sahith Theegala +10000

Lee Westwood +10000

Kyoung-Hoon Lee +10000

Troy Merritt +12500

Sam Ryder +12500

Kevin Streelman +12500

Taylor Pendrith +12500

Andrew Putnam +12500

Lee Hodges +12500

Rickie Fowler +12500

Denny McCarthy +12500

Brendon Todd +12500

Taylor Moore +12500

Garrick Higgo +12500

Martin Laird +12500

Aaron Wise +12500

Adam Svensson +12500

Matt Jones +12500

Aaron Rai +15000

J.J. Spaun +15000

Takumi Kanaya +15000

Chez Reavie +15000

Cam Davis +15000

Patton Kizzire +15000

Dylan Frittelli +15000

Patrick Rodgers +15000

Lucas Herbert +15000

Charles Howell +15000

Pat Perez +15000

Nicolai Hojgaard +15000

Beau Hossler +15000

Danny Lee +20000

Brendan Steele +20000

Danny Willett +20000

Hudson Swafford +20000

Cameron Champ +20000

Sean O’Hair +20000

Doug Ghim +20000

Min Woo Lee +20000

Michael Thompson +20000

Henrik Stenson +20000

Rory Sabbatini +20000

Zach Johnson +20000

Matt Wallace +20000

Padraig Harrington +20000

Branden Grace +20000

Davis Riley +20000

Alex Smalley +20000

Scott Stallings +20000

Brandt Snedeker +20000

Greyson Sigg +25000

Vincent Whaley +25000

Henrik Norlander +25000

Trey Mullinax +25000

Stephan Jaeger +25000

Hayden Buckley +25000

Graeme McDowell +30000

Nick Watney +30000

Peter Malnati +30000

Adam Long +30000

Charl Schwartzel +30000

Adam Schenk +30000

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