Thursday, May 26, 2022

North Carolina vs. Virginia prediction, odds, line: 2022 ACC Tournament picks, best bets from proven model

The 25th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels are aiming to stay hot on Thursday night as they take on the Virginia Cavaliers in the quarterfinals of the 2022 ACC Tournament at Barclays Center. The Tar Heels (23-8, 15-5) have won 11 of their last 13 games and come off a huge 94-81 victory at Duke on Saturday. They dominated the arch-rival Blue Devils in Mike Krzyzewski’s final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and they have a powerful offense that will test Virginia’s stout defense. The Cavaliers (19-12, 12-8) failed that test in the regular-season matchup in January, falling 74-58, but they are playing better now and held off Louisville 51-50 on Wednesday night.

Tipoff in Brooklyn, N.Y. is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Tar Heels as four-point favorites in the latest Virginia vs. North Carolina odds, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 130. Before making any North Carolina vs. Virginia picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $1,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on UNC vs. UVA, and just revealed its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for UVA vs. UNC:

  • North Carolina vs. Virginia spread: Tar Heels -4
  • North Carolina vs. Virginia over-under: 130 points
  • North Carolina vs. Virginia money line: Cavaliers +160, Tar Heels -190
  • UVA: It is 16-14 ATS this season, 6-5 as an underdog.
  • UNC: It is 12-7-1 ATS this season in conference matchups.

Featured Game | North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers

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Why North Carolina can cover

The favorite is 12-4 ATS in the past 16 meetings, and the Tar Heels were dominant in the last matchup. Armando Bacot went off for 29 points and 21 rebounds as the UVA big men searched in vain for answers. That’s the most rebounds the Cavaliers have given up since Wake Forest’s Tim Duncan had 23 in a 1997 game. The 6-foot-10 Bacot is third in the nation rebounding at 12.5 per game and averages a team-high 16.6 points. He had 23 against Duke and was one of four UNC players to top 20, the first time that has happened in the program’s storied history.

Caleb Love scored 22 points against Duke, while RJ Davis had 21 and Brady Manek added 20. Manek hit five of 10 3-pointers and also had 11 rebounds. The Tar Heels have covered the spread in four of their last five games. Only one of their victories this season has been by fewer than seven points. The 3-point shooting should play a huge role in the outcome of this game. UVA didn’t make a single three Wednesday and shoots 34.6 percent (240th in the nation), while UNC hits 37.4 percent (31st). The Heels hit 44 percent and made 11 threes in the last meeting.

Why Virginia can cover

Virginia had won seven straight games in the series before that January loss, and it is 8-0 ATS in its last eight after an ATS loss. It will work hard to slow the tempo against the high-scoring Heels, and it has been effective in doing so this season. It ranks last in Division I in adjusted tempo (59.8 possession per 40 minutes), according to KenPom, while the Tar Heels are 40th (70.5). That is a big reason the Cavaliers rank 12th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 60.4 points per game. They have won seven of their past 10, covering the spread each time.

Francisco Caffaro (7-foot-1) and Kadin Shedrick (6-11) have the size to battle with Bacot, and the Cavs are a better team than they were in the last meeting. They beat Duke just over a month ago then lost by four in a rematch a couple of weeks later. They come in off consecutive wins against Louisville, allowing just 111 points over the two games. Jayden Gardner is the top scorer at 15.3 points per contest and averages 6.8 rebounds. Kihei Clark can get hot from 3-point range and shoots 36.6 percent from outside while averaging 10.4 points and 4.2 assists.

How to make Virginia vs. North Carolina picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 135 points. It also says one side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins UNC vs. Virginia? And which side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $1,600 on its top-rated college basketball spread picks over the last five-plus years, and find out.

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