Friday, December 1, 2023

Michigan vs. Louisville prediction, odds: 2022 Women’s NCAA Tournament Elite Eight expert picks, best bets

The final berth in the Final Four of the 2022 Women’s NCAA Tournament will be decided on Monday evening. The No. 1 seed Louisville Cardinals face the No. 3 seed Michigan Wolverines in a highly-anticipated matchup. Louisville is 28-4 overall and 13-2 in the last 15 games, including an impressive win over Tennessee in the Sweet 16. Michigan is 25-6 overall following wins over American, Villanova and South Dakota in the Women’s NCAA Tournament 2022.

Tipoff is at 9 p.m. ET in Wichita. The Cardinals are listed as 4.5-point favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 129 in the latest Michigan vs. Louisville odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Louisville vs. Michigan picks, be sure to see the women’s college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai.

Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded — a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women’s game. Wetzel, the site’s lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women’s NCAA hoops to turn the site’s prediction model into picks.

Barzilai and Wetzel got off to a fast start with SportsLine as they went 13-7 on their first 20 picks. They went 559-408 overall (+113.80 units, +12.99 percent) in the 2021-22 women’s college basketball regular season.

Now, they’ve set zeroed in on Louisville vs. Michigan, and just locked in their picks and 2022 Women’s NCAA Tournament predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the women’s college basketball odds and betting lines for Michigan vs. Louisville:

  • Michigan vs. Louisville spread: Louisville -4.5
  • Michigan vs. Louisville over-under: 129 points
  • Michigan vs. Louisville moneyline: Louisville -200, Michigan +170
  • MICH: The Wolverines are 9-1 in non-conference games
  • LOU: The Cardinals are 28-3 since a season-opening loss to Arizona

Why Michigan can cover 

Michigan is led by a transcendent play in senior forward Naz Hillmon. Hillmon is on the short list of the best players in the country, earning first-team All-American honors for the 2021-22 season. Hillmon is averaging 21.1 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, leading the team in both categories, and she is highly efficient in converting nearly 58 percent of field-goal attempts. Hillmon is the centerpiece of a strong offense, with Michigan averaging 73.1 points per game. 

As a team, the Wolverines are shooting 45.3 percent from the field, and Michigan converts an impressive 75.5 percent of free-throw attempts. The Wolverines take full advantage of free-throw accuracy by averaging more than 20 free-throw attempts per game, and Louisville generates only 13 shots per game at the charity stripe. Michigan is also a top-tier rebounding team, ranking in the top 10 nationally in rebounding margin and producing 10 more rebounds per game than opponents.

Why Louisville can cover

Louisville is dynamic on both ends of the floor, leading to tremendous overall success. The Cardinals are scoring 72.2 points per game this season, and Louisville is in the top 15 of the nation in field-goal accuracy at 45.7 percent. Louisville is also connecting on 36.6 percent of 3-point attempts, and the Cardinals average nearly 16 assists per game. On the other end, Louisville is stout, holding opponents to 55.0 points per game on 36.5 percent shooting and 29.2 percent from 3-point range. 

Opponents average only 10.4 assists per game against Louisville, and the Cardinals are near the top of the nation in creating 19.1 turnovers per game. That includes 9.6 steals and 4.4 blocks per contest and, on the whole, Louisville commits nearly five turnovers fewer per game than opponents. All told, Louisville is in the top 10 of the country in point differential, and the Cardinals thumped Michigan by 22 points in December.

How to make Louisville vs. Michigan picks

Wetzel and Barzilai are leaning under on the total. They also have found a crucial X-factor they believe make one side a must-back. You can get their pick only at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan vs. Louisville? And what crucial X-factor makes one side a must-back? Visit SportsLine to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the experts who are an outstanding 559-408 on their women’s college basketball picks, and find out.

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