NBA playoff picture: Lakers in serious danger of missing play-in altogether; Celtics tied for No. 1 in East

Sunday was a big moving day in the NBA playoff race. The Boston Celtics went from No. 4 to first place in the Eastern Conference (by mere percentage points). The Philadelphia 76ers fell from No. 1 to No. 3. The Los Angeles Lakers dropped within one game of missing the play-in. The Brooklyn Nets fell into the second play-in game, with the Charlotte Hornets jumping them for No. 8. The Toronto Raptors jumped to No. 6 in the East, pushing the Cleveland Cavaliers into the play-in. Also, the Dallas Mavericks jumped the Utah Jazz for No. 4 in the West. 

We’re going to be keeping close tabs on the playoff race with daily updates the rest of the way. Below is where things stand entering play on Monday, March 28.

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times and is constantly updating to reflect changing circumstances to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Phoenix Suns

Phoenix has clinched the No. 1 overall seed. 

2. Memphis Grizzlies 

The Grizzlies have opened up a four-game lead on No. 3 Golden State with seven to play and one head-to-head matchup remaining. You can pretty much lock Memphis into this slot. 

• Projected seed: 2
• Current first-round matchup: Timberwolves vs. Clippers play-in winner
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Grizzlies lead season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Memphis has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage

3. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors fell to Washington on Sunday and are all but out of the race for the No. 2 seed. The question now is can they hold onto the 3-seed? The Warriors lead the No. 4 Mavericks by two games and Dallas has the tiebreaker. It’s not out of the question that the Warriors fall out of the top four altogether; they lead the No. 5 Jazz by three games with seven to play, one of which is a head-to-head matchup on April 2. 

• Projected seed: 3
• Current first-round matchup: Nuggets
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Grizzlies: Warriors trail season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Warriors lead season series 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage

4. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks knocked off the Jazz on Sunday to move into the No. 4 seed with seven games to play. Dallas is just two games back of No. 3 Golden State with the tiebreaker secured. Dallas effectively leads No. 6 Denver by three games with the tiebreaker secured. 

• Projected seed: 5
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: Jazz
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Dallas has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Utah currently own as division leader (season series tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Dallas leads season series 2-1 with one game to play

5. Utah Jazz

Utah lost to Dallas on Sunday and is now out of the top four, one game back of the Mavs. Utah leads the No. 6 Nuggets by an effective two games with seven to play. 

• Projected seed: 4
• Current first-round matchup: Mavericks
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Warriors: Jazz trail season series 2-1 with one to play
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Mavericks: Utah currently own as division leader (season series tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage

6. Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets trail the No. 5 Jazz by an effective two games with eight to play. The priority is staying out of the play-in. Denver leads No. 7 Minnesota by 1.5 games with one head-to-head matchup remaining on April 1. 

• Projected seed: 6
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Clippers
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Jazz: Utah has clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Mavericks: Dallas has clinched with 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Timberwolves: Denver trails season series 2-1 with one game to play

CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS

7. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves are two losses back of No. 6 Denver with one head-to-head matchup remaining (April 1). If Minnesota wins that game, it would clinch the season tiebreaker over Denver. 

• Projected seed: 7
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Clippers
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Nuggets: Timberwolves lead season series 2-1 with one game to play
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Clippers: L.A. has clinched with 3-1 head-to-head advantage

8. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are pretty firm to remain in the No. 8 spot, leading the No. 9 Pelicans by four games with seven to play. 

• Projected seed: 8
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Timberwolves
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Pelicans: New Orleans has clinched with 3-0 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Lakers: Clippers have clinched with 4-0 head-to-head advantage

9. New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans rallied to beat the Lakers on Sunday to move back into the No. 9 seed — tied in the loss column with Los Angeles — with one head-to-head matchup remaining on April 1. The Pelicans have just a one-loss lead over the No. 11 Spurs with one head-to-head left and San Antonio has clinched the tiebreaker. 

• Projected seed: 9
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Lakers
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Lakers: Pelicans have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup left
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Spurs: San Antonio has clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage

10. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers fell to New Orleans on Sunday and are now in the final play-in spot, and not by much. The Lakers are tied in the loss column with No. 9 New Orleans with one matchup remaining, and New Orleans has secured the tiebreaker. The Lakers are also just one game up on No. 11 San Antonio with eight games to play, and the Spurs currently own the tiebreaker via conference record. The lottery could well be awaiting the Lakers. 

• Projected seed: 10
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Pelicans
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Pelicans: Pelicans have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup left
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 11 Spurs: San Antonio currently owns via conference record (head-to-head tied 2-2, neither team leads division)

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

• No. 11 San Antonio Spurs: Trailing No. 10 Lakers by one in the loss column
  
  

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Boston Celtics

The Celtics are the East’s current No. 1 seed by percentage points. Boston, Miami, Milwaukee and Philadelphia all have 28 losses. The Celtics and Heat have seven games left; the Bucks and Sixers have eight. Boston still has one matchup left with the Heat and the Bucks. Boston has a three-game lead over the No. 5 Bulls with one head-to-head remaining, so a top-four seed feels pretty safe. 

• Projected seed: 1
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: TBD play-in results
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Miami: Celtics have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup left
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Celtics lead season series 2-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Celtics currently own as Atlantic division leader (head-to-head tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining

2. Miami Heat

The Heat have lost four straight to drop to the No. 2 seed, tied in the loss column with No. 1 Boston, No. 3 Milwaukee and No. 4 Philadelphia (tiebreaker info below). Miami leads No. 5 Chicago by an effective four games so a top-four seed feels pretty safe. 

• Projected seed: 2
• Current first-round matchup: Cavs vs. Hornets play-in winner
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Boston: Celtics have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup left
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Heat currently own via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Heat currently own via conference record (season series tied 2-2, both teams leading division)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Heat have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup remaining

3. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are tied with the No. 1 Celtics, No. 2 Heat and No. 4 Sixers in the loss column (tiebreaker info below). The Bucks have one matchup remaining vs. Philadelphia on Tuesday. The Buck also have one game left against the Celtics (April 7). 

• Projected seed: 3
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: Raptors
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Boston: Bucks trail season series 2-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Miami: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series 2-2, both teams leading division)
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Bucks lead season series 2-0 with two games remaining

4. Philadelphia 76ers

Philly fell in Phoenix on Sunday and is now in a four-way tie in the loss column with the No. 1 Celtics, No. 2 Heat and No. 3 Bucks (tiebreaker info below). The Sixers have one game left vs. the Bucks on Tuesday, which will decide the tiebreaker. 

• Projected seed: 4
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: Bulls
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Boston: Philly currently owns as Atlantic division leader (head-to-head tied 2-2)
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Miami: Miami currently owns via conference record (season series tied 2-2, both teams leading division)  
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Season series tied 1-1 with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage

5. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls lead the No. 6 Raptors by an effective two games with the tiebreaker secured, and the No. 7 Cavs by an effective three games with the tiebreaker also secured. 

• Projected seed: 5
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: Sixers
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 1 Boston: Season series tied 1-1 with one game remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 2 Miami: Heat have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with one matchup remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 3 Milwaukee: Bulls trail season series 2-0 with two games remaining
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 4 Philadelphia: Sixers have clinched via 4-0 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Toronto: Chicago has clinched tiebreaker via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Cleveland: Chicago has clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage

6. Toronto Raptors 

The Raptors have jumped one game ahead of the Cavs for the No. 6 seed, and they are just one back of the No. 5 Bulls (Toronto does not have the tiebreaker against either Chicago or Cleveland). 

• Projected seed: 7
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Nets
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Chicago has clinched tiebreaker via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 7 Cleveland: Cavs have clinched via 3-0 head-to-head advantage with game remaining
  
  

CURRENT PLAY-IN TEAMS

7. Cleveland Cavaliers 

The Cavaliers have fallen into the play-in, one game back of the No. 6 Raptors with eight to play (Cleveland has the tiebreaker). The Cavs are two back of the No. 5 Bulls, but Chicago has the tiebreaker. Cleveland’s more pressing concern is staying out of the play-in; the Cavs trail the No. 7 Raptors by one game with eight left to play (Cavs own the tiebreaker).  

• Projected seed: 6
  
  
• Current first-round matchup: Hornets
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 5 Chicago: Bulls have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 6 Toronto: Cavs have clinched via 3-1 head-to-head advantage

8. Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets took a major step toward securing a spot in the first play-in game (which would give them two cracks at a playoff berth) with a victory over the Nets on Tuesday. Not only did Charlotte tie the Nets for the No. 8 seed, but it also secured the tiebreaker via 2-1 head-to-head advantage with no matchups remaining. With seven games left, the Hornets and Nets are deadlocked at 39-36. 

• Projected seed: 9
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Cavs
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Brooklyn: Hornets have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Hornets currently own via conference record

9. Brooklyn Nets 

The Nets fell to Charlotte on Sunday. They are tied with the Hornets, who have secured the tiebreaker, with seven to play. The Nets lead the No. 10 Hawks by one in the loss column with one head-to-head matchup remaining. 

• Projected seed: 8
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Hawks
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Charlotte: Hornets have clinched via 2-1 head-to-head advantage
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 10 Atlanta: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining

10. Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks trail the No. 8 Hornets and No. 9 Nets by one in the loss column with one matchup remaining against Brooklyn (the Nets have already clinched the tiebreaker).

• Projected seed: 10
  
  
• Current play-in matchup: Nets
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 8 Charlotte: Charlotte currently owns via conference win percentage
  
  
• Tiebreaker vs. No. 9 Brooklyn: Nets have clinched via 2-0 head-to-head advantage with one game remaining
  
  

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

• No. 11 New York Knicks: Five losses back of No. 10 Atlanta
• No. 12 Washington Wizards: Five losses back of No. 10 Atlanta