Saturday, June 25, 2022

Bubba Watson’s 2018 Masters odds fall considerably following Genesis Open win

Coming into last week’s Genesis Open, two-time Masters champion Bubba Watson had 50-1 odds to win a third green jacket in April. That was understandable. Watson had not played well for the better part of two years and doesn’t have a top 30 at Augusta in the last three seasons.

Then he won the Genesis Open by two strokes, and his odds plummeted to 25-1. He’s now one of the 12 favorites for the year’s first major championship. Let’s look at their odds coming into the Genesis Open compared to leaving it (note: not everyone on this list played in the Genesis Open).

Odds according to Bovada.

As you can see, only Watson’s number moved after the tournament, even with solid weeks from Spieth, Johnson, Thomas and McIlroy. It’s a fair move, too. Watson won the Masters in 2014 just two months after winning this event, and he’s always a wild card at Augusta National.

These are some really intriguing numbers, too. I think Watson might still be a little undervalued, even at 25-1, and Mickelson is as well at that number. Tiger’s number is ridiculous and (as always) a reflection of how amped people are to back him for any event. Garcia, Leishman, Thomas and Rose are all probably a little undervalued as well.

Barring something crazy happening over the next six weeks, this will likely be what the top 15 looks like going into Masters week. That could change if somebody like Adam Scott, Brandt Snedeker or Matt Kuchar gets blazing hot, but there likely won’t be as dramatic a shift in the numbers with anyone as there was with Watson this time around.

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