Thursday, May 19, 2022

Yankees vs. Red Sox odds, line, prediction: 2022 MLB picks, April 9 best bets from proven computer model

The AL East’s biggest rivals got off to a late but rousing start to the MLB season, and now the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will battle again Saturday afternoon. Both teams started with a bang in Friday’s opener at Yankee Stadium. They combined for five runs in the first inning, but the pitchers settled in and the teams traded runs into extra innings. The Yankees matched Boston’s run in the 10th, then got a Josh Donaldson single in the bottom of the 11th for a 6-5 victory. It was New York’s first walk-off win on its Opening Day since 1957. New York won 10 of the 19 regular-season matchups last season, including the final six, but the Red Sox won the most important meeting, winning the AL Wild-Card game 6-2. Both teams are expected to go with right-handers on the mound Saturday, with Boston slated to start Nick Pivetta and the Yankees countering with Luis Severino.

First pitch in New York is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. New York is listed as a -170 favorite (risk $170 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Red Sox vs. Yankees odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total runs scored is nine. Before you make any Yankees vs. Red Sox picks, you need to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, enters the 2022 MLB season coming off a 209-178 record on top-rated MLB picks in 2021, returning over $700 for $100 players. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Yankees vs. Red Sox, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the MLB odds and trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees:

  • Red Sox vs. Yankees money line: Boston +150, New York -170  
  • Red Sox vs. Yankees over-under: 9 runs 
  • BOS: Nick Pivetta has 609 strikeouts in 561⅓ career innings over six seasons 
  • NYY: Luis Severino had 450 strikeouts over his last two full seasons (2017-18)

Featured Game | New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

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Why you should back the Yankees 

New York has plenty of pop from the likes of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and Donaldson. Rizzo hit a two-run home run in the first inning Friday, and Stanton added a solo shot in the fourth. Judge had 39 homers and a .916 OPS last season, and Stanton had 35 long balls as he was able to stay mostly healthy. Gallo had 38 between the Rangers and Yankees, and he led the AL in walks (111) but had an MLB-high 213 strikeouts. The Yankees could get their chances against Pivetta, who can miss a lot of bats but also can make plenty of mistakes.    

Second baseman DJ LeMahieu hit .268 and had 24 doubles last season, and he went 2-for-5 with a run and RBI Friday. Donaldson, who was acquired from the Twins last month, also stayed healthy most of last season and hit 26 homers, and he has a career OPS of .872. Severino was expected to be a long-term ace for the Yankees before needing Tommy John surgery, but he appears ready to return to form. He allowed three hits and one run while striking out nine in five relief appearances last season, the only run coming against Boston in the Wild-Card game. 

Why you should back the Red Sox

Boston showed on Friday how it’s just never out of a game with the Yankees. It held the lead three different times, getting a two-run Rafael Devers homer in the first and also taking the lead in the 10th. It won seven straight matchups with the Yankees at the beginning of last season, and it was fourth in the AL with 829 runs scored while the Yankees were 10th (711). Devers had 38 homers, with 113 RBIs and an OPS of .847 last season, with five homers and 18 RBI in 19 games against New York. Xander Bogaerts, who tweaked a hamstring Friday, hit .295 in 2021. 

The addition of Trevor Story also should pay dividends, and he went 0-for-5 Friday, so he should be due. Severino might get off to a shaky start after he gave up nine hits and seven runs while walking five in just 7⅔ innings over three spring starts. Pivetta had a 3.42 ERA and struck out 22 in 15⅔ in his four outings. The 6-foot-5 right-hander went 9-8 with a 4.53 ERA last season, and he was much better in road games. He made 15 of his 30 starts on the road, and he had a 3.75 ERA, compared to 5.40 at home. He allowed seven of his 24 home runs in away games.         

How to make Red Sox vs. Yankees picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the run total, as the simulation suggests the teams will combine for more than 10.5 runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model’s Yankees vs. Red Sox pick at SportsLine

So who wins Yankees vs. Red Sox on Saturday? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side to jump on for Red Sox vs. Yankees, all from the advanced model that is 209-178 on its top-rated MLB picks last season, and find out.

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