The Atlanta Hawks aim to strengthen their postseason position when they face the Houston Rockets in the regular season finale on Sunday. Atlanta is 42-39 for the season and, while the Hawks are guaranteed to make the NBA‘s play-in tournament, Nate McMillan’s team can help itself with a win over Houston. The Rockets are on a six-game losing streak, falling to 20-61 on the season. Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) is listed as probable for the Hawks, with Lou Williams (back) listed as doubtful and John Collins (finger/foot) ruled out. Jalen Green (illness) is listed as questionable for the Rockets, with Eric Gordon (groin), Dennis Schroder (shoulder), and Christian Wood (hamstring) ruled out.
Tip-off is at 3:30 p.m. ET in Houston. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Hawks as 12.5-point road favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 239.5 in the latest Hawks vs. Rockets odds. Before you make any Rockets vs. Hawks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 25 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 84-54 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Hawks vs. Rockets, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Rockets vs. Hawks:
- Hawks vs. Rockets spread: Hawks -12.5
- Hawks vs. Rockets over-under: 239.5 points
- Hawks vs. Rockets money line: Hawks -900, Rockets +600
- ATL: The Hawks are 13-27 against the spread in road games
- HOU: The Rockets are 16-23-1 against the spread in home games
Featured Game | Houston Rockets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Why the Hawks can cover
Atlanta’s offense is unquestionably elite, and it shows up in the team’s statistical profile. The Hawks are No. 2 in the NBA in offensive rating, scoring more than 1.15 points per possession. Atlanta is also facing a Houston defense that ranks in the bottom five in defensive rating, including bottom-tier marks in fast break points allowed, second-chance points allowed, and points allowed in the paint. The Hawks lead the NBA in turnovers, committing only 11.8 per game, and Atlanta is in the top five of the league in assist-to-turnover ratio as a result.
The Hawks are also No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point accuracy, No. 8 in the NBA in field goal percentage, and No. 4 in the NBA in free throw accuracy. On defense, Atlanta is very good at preventing free throw attempts, yielding only 19.9 per game, and Houston has glaring offensive weaknesses. The Rockets are scoring only 1.08 points per possession this season, with the worst marks in the NBA in turnover rate, turnovers per game, and assist-to-turnover ratio.
Why the Rockets can cover
Houston is facing an Atlanta defense that has struggled mightily this season. The Hawks are No. 26 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing nearly 1.14 points per possession. Atlanta is No. 24 in the league in field goal percentage allowed, No. 26 in 3-point percentage allowed, No. 26 in turnover creation, and No. 23 in assists allowed, illustrating the potential openings for Houston. The Rockets lead the NBA in free throw attempts, averaging 24.6 per game, and Houston is also in the top eight in 3-pointers, making 13.4 per contest.
The Rockets rank in the top 10 of the NBA in second-chance points (14.3 per game) and points in the paint (48.9 per game), and Houston also forces more than 14.0 turnovers per game on defense. From there, Atlanta struggles on the road, posting a 15-25 record away from State Farm Arena with a -2.2 net rating.
How to make Rockets vs. Hawks picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 228 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Hawks vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.