Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Why the Clippers and Timberwolves will score a lot of points, plus other best bets for Tuesday

Good afternoon, it’s Chris Bengel back with you. Can I just say that having baseball back is a beautiful thing? 

One of my guiltiest pleasures in sports betting is wagering on no-run first inning bets. It’s all about the pitching matchup and you can normally take advantage of a good one in order to cash these kinds of wagers. It’s not the type of bet that you’re going to win all the time, but it’s a fun dart throw to start off a game if you’re not interested in betting on the result itself.

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Let’s get into today’s picks. We’ve got the start of the NBA playoffs with the play-in tournament and more baseball action that I happen to love.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


The Hot Ticket

Clippers vs. Timberwolves, 9:30 p.m. | TV: TNT

Latest Odds: Over 231

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

  • Key Trend: The over is 5-1 in the Timberwolves’ last six home games
  • The Pick: Over 230.5 points (-110)

Few believed that the Clippers would be forced to take part in the play-in tournament to start off the postseason. However, Kawhi Leonard has missed the entire season and Paul George was absent for a significant portion of it. Now that they’re here, I certainly could see either the Clippers or Timberwolves coming out on the winning side of this small spread, but it’s just too risky for my blood.

Instead, I’m a huge fan of taking the over in this spot.

The over is 4-0-1 in the Clippers’ last five games as a road underdog. In addition, when facing teams that have a winning record, the over is 7-0-1. The success isn’t one-sided either, as the Timberwolves’ over has a 5-1 record in their last six home games. The Timberwolves’ over is also 5-1 as a home favorite over their last six contests. Minnesota also averages a league-high 115.9 points-per-game and has scored at least 120 points in four of its last five games. The Clippers’ offense isn’t quite as dangerous with just 108.4 points-per-game on the season. With these teams fighting for their playoff lives, I’d expect there to be an abundance of points scored throughout this one.


The Picks

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USATSI

NBA

Cavaliers at Nets, 7 p.m. | TV: TNT

Latest Odds: Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

The Pick: Cavaliers +9.5 (-110)There hasn’t been a more polarizing team in the NBA over the final two months of the regular season than the Nets. Brooklyn made a splash at the trade deadline when they shipped star guard James Harden to the Philadelphia 76ers in exchange for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond. While the Nets haven’t seen Simmons return to the court yet, the additions of Curry and Drummond have done wonders to improve the team’s rotation.

For those reasons, it’s not surprising to see the Nets being 9.5-point favorites in Tuesday’s play-in round matchup against the Cavaliers. But as impressive as the Nets have been, the spread is way too large for me. The Nets are 1-4 ATS since Irving has been able to play in home games at the Barclays Center. The Cavaliers did fall to the Nets by 11 points in Friday’s matchup between the two teams. But they also held Irving to a pedestrian 7-of-22 shooting performance in Brooklyn. This spread is just too big for me.

Key Trend: The Nets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games

MLB

Dodgers at Twins, 7:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.tv

Latest Odds: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

The Pick: Dodgers (-145) — I’m surprised that the moneyline isn’t at higher odds. Perhaps that’s because the Dodgers have lost two of their first three games to the Rockies and only scored a grand total of nine runs despite playing at batter-friendly Coors Field.

Still, I love the Dodgers offense to get back on track in a spot like this. They have an 8-2 mark against right-handed starting pitchers in their last 10 interleague matchups. It’s also hard to believe that the Twins will be able to hold the Dodgers at bay with Chris Archer on the mound. After all, Archer had just six starts throughout the 2021 season and he only lasted more than 2.1 innings in three of those starts.

With a Dodgers lineup that features the likes of Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger and Freddie Freeman, I’m more than confident that Los Angeles will be able to get to Archer early and often in this one.

Key Trend: The Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague road games against a right-handed starting pitcher

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