In 2019, Country House paid out over $130 on a $2 bet after he won following the disqualification of Maximum Security during a muddy Kentucky Derby. For better or worse, the Kentucky Derby has produced memorable finishes in recent years, and bettors can’t truly rule out any horse, even 65-1 longshots like Country House. The 2022 Kentucky Derby Odds list three horses in the 2022 Kentucky Derby field at longer than 50-1 One of those is 100-1 Tawny Port, trained by Brad Cox, who also mentored 2021 Breeders’ Cup winner Knicks Go. With a wide-open, 20-horse field expected to enter the starting gate, you’ll want to see what racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2022 Kentucky Derby picks.
A Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014. Last year, he was on fire. He hit the exacta in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby and Peter Pan Stakes, the trifecta in the Risen Star Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby and the superfecta in the Belmont Stakes.
This year, he has been red-hot in the 2022 Kentucky Derby prep races, hitting the superfecta in the Blue Grass Stakes, the trifecta in the Louisiana Derby and the exacta in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby. He also has hit the trifecta in the Pegasus World Cup and multiple Pick 4s, among other scores. Now, he has handicapped the 2022 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his bets. Click here to see them.
Top 2022 Kentucky Derby expert picks
One surprise: Weir is tossing Taiba, even though he is one of the top 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders at 6-1 and just won the Santa Anita Derby. The colt has been a fast-riser in the ranks after wins in his maiden special weight at Santa Anita in early March and the Santa Anita Derby.
Taiba won the latter race after falling to the middle of the pack following a quick start from the outside. A late push and a faltering Messier gave Taiba the opportunity he needed to win, but Weir doesn’t think he’ll be so lucky in his next outing. Even though Taiba’s career is off to a quick start, his inexperience against an expanded field makes him an unlikely 2022 Kentucky Derby favorite.
Instead, Weir is high on Charge It, even though he’s a 20-1 long shot. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Charge It has raced just three times, winning once and finishing second twice. He is coming off a runner-up finish behind White Abarrio in the Florida Derby on April 2.
In that race, he broke slowly, got dirt kicked in his face for the first time and zig-zagged down the stretch, but still almost caught the winner. “There’s no doubt he’s talented, and if he acts a little more professional in Kentucky, he can improve,” Weir told SportsLine. Weir is including Charge It in his 2022 Kentucky Derby bets.
How to make 2022 Kentucky Derby predictions, bets
Weir is high on three other horses, including an epic long shot who’s “hard to ignore” and worth a “long look.” Weir is including these horses in his 2022 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. He’s only sharing his 2022 Kentucky Derby cheat sheet and picks here.
Who wins the Kentucky Derby 2022? And which enormous double-digit long shot is a must-back? Check out the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2022 below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed this year’s prep races.
