Sunday, July 3, 2022

2022 Kentucky Derby odds, betting strategy, cheat sheet: Expert who nailed prep races tells picks

Trainer Tim Yakteen can win the biggest race of his career when he sends out two of the favorites in the 2022 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 7 at Churchill Downs. Born in Germany, Yakteen has been in charge of his own stable since 2004, with his horses winning more than 250 races and $12.2 million. However, none of those wins approached the significance of the Kentucky Derby. This year, Yakteen has two strong 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders, Taiba and Messier, who were both previously trained by Bob Baffert. Taiba and Messier, who finished first and second, respectively, in the Santa Anita Derby, are both 6-1 in the 2022 Kentucky Derby odds. They sit just behind Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter, the 5-1 favorite in the 2022 Kentucky Derby field. With a talented 20-horse field expected to enter the starting gate, you’ll want to see what racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2022 Kentucky Derby picks.

A Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014. Last year, he was on fire. He hit the exacta in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby and Peter Pan Stakes, the trifecta in the Risen Star Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby and the superfecta in the Belmont Stakes.

This year, he has been red-hot in the 2022 Kentucky Derby prep races, hitting the superfecta in the Blue Grass Stakes, the trifecta in the Louisiana Derby and the exacta in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby. He also has hit the trifecta in the Pegasus World Cup and multiple Pick 4s, among other scores. Now, he has handicapped the 2022 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his bets. Click here to see them.

Top 2022 Kentucky Derby expert picks

One surprise: Weir is tossing Taiba, even though he is one of the top 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders at 6-1 and just won the Santa Anita Derby. Taiba is coming off a win in the Santa Anita Derby, but that was just his second major race of his career. He was originally trained by Bob Baffert before being transferred to Tim Yakteen’s barn prior to the Santa Anita Derby.

Taiba’s lack of experience is a major concern heading into the Run for the Roses, as just one horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby in his third career start. In addition, his jockey, Mike Smith, is 2-for-27 in the Kentucky Derby. There is simply too much uncertainty swirling around Taiba to back him this year, including his lack of race experience and new barn. 

Instead, Weir is high on Charge It, even though he’s a 20-1 long shot. Bred and owned by Whisper Hill Farm, Charge It has one win and two seconds in three career starts. He is coming off a runner-up finish in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Weir believes Charge It can improve significantly upon that performance, where he was slow to leave the gate and zig-zagged down the stretch. “There’s no doubt he’s talented, and if he acts a little more professional in Kentucky, he can improve,” Weir told SportsLine. Weir is including Charge It in his 2022 Kentucky Derby bets.

How to make 2022 Kentucky Derby predictions, bets

Weir is high on three other horses, including an epic long shot who’s “hard to ignore” and worth a “long look.” Weir is including these horses in his 2022 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. He’s only sharing his 2022 Kentucky Derby cheat sheet and picks here.

Who wins the Kentucky Derby 2022? And which enormous double-digit long shot is a must-back? Check out the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2022 below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed this year’s prep races.

2022 Kentucky Derby odds, contenders, lineup

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