Saturday, July 2, 2022

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves prediction, odds: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 5 best bets from model on 86-58 run

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit FedEx Forum to take on the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday evening. They face off in Game 5 of a best-of-seven first round matchup in the 2022 NBA playoffs with the series knotted at 2-2. Minnesota held serve at home in Game 4, effectively narrowing the series to a best-of-three matchup against the No. 2 seed Grizzlies. The Wolves report no injuries for Game 5, with the Grizzlies listing Santi Aldama (knee) and Killian Tillie (back) as out.

Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Memphis. Caesars Sportsbook lists Memphis as the six-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 232.5 in the latest Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves odds. Before you make any Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the second full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Wolves vs. Grizzlies, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Wolves vs. Grizzlies:

  • Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves spread: Grizzlies -6 
  • Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves over-under: 232.5 points 
  • Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves money line: Grizzlies -260, Wolves +210 
  • MIN: The Wolves are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games 
  • MEM: The Grizzlies are 4-5-1 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

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Why the Timberwolves can cover

The Timberwolves are multi-faceted and effective on both ends of the floor. Minnesota ranked No. 7 in the NBA in offensive rating during the regular season, scoring nearly 1.14 points per possession. The Wolves are very strong on the offensive glass, securing 28.4 percent missed shots, and that leads to 14.8 second-chance points per game, a top-five figure in the NBA. Minnesota also ranked in the top 10 of the league in free throw creation, assists per game, fast break points per game and assist rate, and no NBA team made more 3-pointers (14.8 per game) than the Wolves this season. 

On the other end, Minnesota relies on havoc creation, and the Wolves finished above the NBA average in allowing only 1.11 points per possession. Minnesota led the league in turnover creation (16.3 per game) during the regular season, ranking in the top three of the NBA in steals (8.8 per game) and blocks (5.6 per game). The Wolves also allowed only 35.0 percent 3-point shooting to opponents over the 82-game regular season sample.

Why the Grizzlies can cover

The Grizzlies are deep and talented, with defense leading the way in this series. Memphis is holding Minnesota to 107.3 points per 100 possessions through four games, and the Grizzlies were No. 6 in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Memphis allowed only 108.9 points per 100 possessions over 82 games, and the Grizzlies led the league in both steals (9.8 per game) and blocks (6.5 per game). The Grizzlies were No. 3 in creating turnovers (15.1 per game), with top-10 marks in field goal percentage allowed and 2-point percentage allowed. 

Memphis is facing a Minnesota defense that was in the bottom five of the NBA in defensive rebound rate, free throw prevention, and assists allowed in 2021-22, and the Grizzlies led the league in offensive rebound rate, second-chance points per game, fast break points per game and points in the paint per game. All told, Memphis was a top-five offensive team in the NBA during the regular season, with strongly above-average marks in free throw creation, assists, assist rate and turnover rate.

How to make Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting a combined 232 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Wolves vs. Grizzlies? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Wolves vs. Grizzlies spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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