Thursday, June 30, 2022

Trey McBride NFL Draft profile 2022: Scouting report, Fantasy Football fits, Dynasty outlook and more

We were spoiled in 2021 by Kyle Pitts and Pat Freiermuth. Rookie tight ends don’t produce seasons like theirs very often. And it wouldn’t be fair to expect anyone from 2022 to match Pitts’ 1,026 receiving yards or Freiermuth’s seven touchdown catches in their rookie years. But there is at least one tight end in this class who could pass Freiermuth in my Dynasty tight end rankings as early as the second day of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Trey McBride led all FBS tight ends last year in catches (90) catches and receiving yards (1,121) in his senior season at Colorado State. While this was his first full season of elite production, he’d foreshadowed it by averaging 82.5 yards per game and scoring four times in four games as a junior. Strictly looking at production, McBride’s last 16 games stand out as elite amongst college tight end prospects. 

It’s everything else that separates him from someone like Pitts. McBride doesn’t have elite athleticism, but his size/speed combo is certainly acceptable at the NFL level. And while he thoroughly dominated targets in his final two seasons at CSU, that’s at least partially due to the fact that he was playing at a lower-level school that won three games and only scored 1.3 passing touchdowns per game.

McBride’s is a game that has just enough sheen if you want to believe, but no shortage of questions about his profile. This is why landing spot and draft capital may heavily influence his projections next month.

Age as of Week 1: 22 | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 249 | 40 time: 4.56

Comparable body-type to: Dennis Pitta

Best Fantasy fits 

New York GiantsDawson Knox was a similar prospect and athlete to McBride and Brian Daboll just turned him into a Fantasy asset. Ricky Seals-Jones currently sits atop the Giants’ depth chart at tight end, but he shouldn’t stand in anyone’s way too long. This may be the most likely place that McBride could make a short-term impact and they may just be a year away from a major upgrade at quarterback.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – If Rob Gronkowski doesn’t return there may be no better place for a tight end right now than in Tampa with Tom Brady. But even if Gronk does return, he’s unlikely to be a long-term impediment and his injury history suggests an opportunity for McBride to possibly step in as a streamer as soon as this season.

Washington Commanders – Washington’s offense is designed to get the bell to the tight end, as they showed last year even when Logan Thomas was out. They also like to use their tight ends in the short area, which is where I’d expect McBride will succeed predominantly. Thomas s still at the top of the depth chart right now but he’s almost 31 years old and only has one season with more than 30 targets earned.

Dynasty outlook

In the short term, McBride’s Dynasty value will be heavily impacted by his draft capital and landing spot. There are some rumors that have him as a borderline first-round pick, which would vault him into the upper half of Round 2 in rookie drafts and make him a top-12 tight end in my Dynasty rankings. In Ryan Wilson’s most recent mock draft, McBride went 59th overall to the Green Bay Packers. In that scenario, he’s probably a late-Round 2 rookie pick and a high-end TE2 for Dynasty purposes. Longterm, I could see McBride giving us several seasons of low-end TE1 production in the right situation. It is hard to imagine him producing more than one top-three season at the position.

Scouting report

Strengths

  • What he does well, separating from linebackers, he may be able to do very early in the NFL due to his maturity and the high number of reps he got doing it in live action his senior year.
  • If you believe targets are earned, few tight ends have shown that skill better than McBride.
  • He predominantly played inline at Colorado State, but he also showed the ability to line up and win in a variety of different alignments due to other teams focusing on him. He probably won’t win out wide, but he could have success in the slot against the right matchup.
  • If you believe the 40 time from his pro day, his size/speed combination is better than producers like Freiermuth and T.J. Hockenson.
  • He has more ability after the catch than his athleticism would suggest. You will not have fun arm tackling him and he can jump over a diving defender.

Concerns

  • The fact that he only scored 10 receiving touchdowns in 32 collegiate games is not only because of how bad the offense was. He lacks a suddenness in his breaks and he doesn’t have the kind of frame that can consistently win by just boxing guys out.
  • The low level of competition he faced in college makes it hard to forecast how he’ll fare against NFL talent. 
  • There’s not really one trait that is elite, or that I could see developing into being elite. He’s good at several things, he may not ever be great at anything.
  • Even if he breaks tackles after the catch, you don’t see him running away from people. In most cases you see him getting caught from behind or by the angle.
  • He could get caught in between being a move tight end and an inline tight end with teams preferring bigger inline players and faster move tight ends.

Stats breakdown

G

REC

ReYds

Avg

TD

2021

12

90

1,121

12.5

1

2020

4

22

330

15.0

4

2019

12

45

560

12.4

4

2018

12

7

89

12.7

1

Career

40

164

2,100

12.8

10

Advanced stats to know

  • McBride earned a 34% target share in his final year at Colorado State. 
  • McBride’s 46.3 Dominator score on playerprofiler ranks in the 99th percentile of college tight ends.

NFL comparison

I chose Dennis Pitta for the body-type comp because I didn’t want anyone to think I was comparing McBride’s athleticism to George Kittle or Noah Fant. He’s not them. I make that distinction because I also don’t want you to think that Pitta’s career is McBride’s upside or even projection. Pitta entered the league at 25 years old, for one thing. McBride isn’t near as good a prospect as T.J. Hockenson either, but, like Fant, Hockenson hasn’t exactly lived up to his pedigree yet. I could see that type of production from McBride if he lands in the right situation and develops well. The start like we’ve seen from Cole Kmet is probably a more realistic projection for the first two seasons.

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