Friday, July 1, 2022

2022 Kentucky Derby odds, betting strategy, cheat sheet: Expert who hit prep races reveals picks

The 2022 Kentucky Derby post draw was held on Monday, assigning all 20 horses in the 2022 Kentucky Derby field a starting position. Epicenter, who won the Louisiana Derby, was presumed to be the 2022 Kentucky Derby favorite. However, that honor now goes to Zandon, who captured victory in the Blue Grass Stakes and will break from the middle of the pack at post #10. Zandon is 3-1 in the latest 2022 Kentucky Derby odds, while Epicenter is nearly even at 7-2 and will leave from post #3. The 2022 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday. With a talented 20-horse field expected to enter the starting gate, you’ll want to see what racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2022 Kentucky Derby picks.

A Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. He has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014. Last year, he was on fire. He hit the exacta in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby and Peter Pan Stakes, the trifecta in the Risen Star Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby and the superfecta in the Belmont Stakes.

This year, he has been red-hot in the 2022 Kentucky Derby prep races, hitting the superfecta in the Blue Grass Stakes, the trifecta in the Louisiana Derby and the exacta in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby. He also has hit the trifecta in the Pegasus World Cup and multiple Pick 4s, among other scores. Now, he has handicapped the 2022 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his bets. Click here to see them.

Top 2022 Kentucky Derby expert picks

One surprise: Weir is tossing Taiba, even though he is one of the top 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders at 12-1 and just won the Santa Anita Derby. Taiba is the son of 2017 American Horse of the Year Gun Runner, who ranked first in 2016 Kentucky Derby points, but could only muster a third-place finish in the race. Just like Gun Runner, Taiba has only raced twice as a three-year-old entering the Kentucky Derby 2022, and that inexperience has historically been a poor omen.

Only once in the previous 147 editions of the race has a horse with fewer than three starts won the Kentucky Derby. That came with Leonatus back in 1883, as at least three starts is preferable as a preparation strategy. Taiba was impressive in his two career starts, winning both, but quantity matters almost as much as quality. There’s just not enough to go off of with Taiba, and given his short odds, there are far better values for your 2022 Kentucky Derby bets, according to Weir.

Instead, Weir is high on Charge It, even though he’s a 20-1 long shot. Charge It received a favorable draw on Monday and will leave from post #8. He finished second in the Florida Derby and is trained by Todd Pletcher, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2010 with Super Saver and 2017 with Always Dreaming.

“This Todd Pletcher trainee exits a second in the Florida Derby while making his first start around two turns in just his third career start. In that race, he was off a bit slow and forced to run behind horses for the first time. He looked stalled a couple of times but found his stride late,” Weir told SportsLine.

How to make 2022 Kentucky Derby predictions, bets

Weir is high on three other horses, including an epic long shot who’s “hard to ignore” and worth a “long look.” Weir is including these horses in his 2022 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. He’s only sharing his 2022 Kentucky Derby cheat sheet and picks here.

Who wins the Kentucky Derby 2022? And which enormous double-digit long shot is a must-back? Check out the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2022 below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed this year’s prep races.

2022 Kentucky Derby odds, contenders, lineup, post positions

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