Sunday, July 3, 2022

76ers vs. Heat prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 1 bets from model on 86-58 run

The Philadelphia 76ers visit the Miami Heat on Monday evening for a Game 1 matchup at FTX Arena. The 76ers advanced to the second round of the 2022 NBA playoffs after a first round win over the Toronto Raptors. The Heat defeated the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, and Miami holds home-court advantage as the No. 1 seed. Joel Embiid (facial) is out for the 76ers. Kyle Lowry (hamstring) is out for the Heat, with Jimmy Butler (knee), Tyler Herro (respiratory), Max Strus (hamstring) and P.J. Tucker (calf) listed as questionable.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as a 7.5-point home favorite for this 7:30 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 208.5 in the latest 76ers vs. Heat odds. Before locking in any Heat vs. 76ers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the third full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Sixers vs. Heat, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Sixers:

  • 76ers vs. Heat spread: Heat -7.5
  • 76ers vs. Heat over-under: 208.5 points
  • 76ers vs. Heat money line: Heat -350, 76ers +280
  • PHI: The 76ers are 4-2 against the spread in the playoffs
  • MIA: The Heat are 3-2 against the spread in the playoffs

Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers

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Why the 76ers can cover

Philadelphia performed very well in the first round series against the Raptors. The Sixers scored 119.5 points per 100 possessions against Toronto, shooting 48.8 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from 3-point range. Philadelphia also built on its regular season success at the free throw line, making 84.9 percent of more than 25 attempts per game. The 76ers finished in the top three of the league in free throw creation and free throw accuracy, putting pressure on opposing defenses. Philadelphia has a pair of impressive shot creators on the perimeter, with Tyrese Maxey scoring 21.3 points per game and producing a 63.5 percent true shooting mark in the first round. 

James Harden averaged 21.0 points, 10.5 assists and 7.1 rebounds per game in 21 regular season appearances with Philadelphia, and the 76ers led the NBA in live-ball turnovers, committing only 6.6 per game. On the defense, Philadelphia held Toronto to less than 1.1 points per possession in the series, and the 76ers finished No. 2 in the league in 3-pointers allowed (11.4 per game). The 76ers were also in the top 10 in 3-point accuracy allowed and assists allowed during the regular season.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami is known for an elite defense, and the Heat completely throttled Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the playoffs. However, the Heat are also dynamic on offense, scoring nearly 1.16 points per possession against Atlanta. Miami secured more than 30 percent of available offensive rebounds, and the Heat averaged 25.4 assists and only 13.2 turnovers per game against the Hawks. 

Miami had three players that averaged at least 19 points per game in the regular season, leading to 1.13 points per possession as a team. The Heat led the NBA in 3-point accuracy in the regular season, burying 37.9 percent of attempts, and Miami was in the top six in 3-pointers per game (13.6). The Heat finished in the top 10 in free throw accuracy, assists per game, assist rate and offensive rebound rate in 2021-22, and Miami can attack Philadelphia with a varied and balanced offensive approach.

How to make Heat vs. 76ers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 214 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins 76ers vs. Heat? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out. 

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