Friday, March 24, 2023

Bucks vs. Celtics game prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 2 bets from model on 86-58 run

The Boston Celtics host the Milwaukee Bucks for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Tuesday evening. Milwaukee was victorious in Game 1, seizing home-court advantage in the best-of-seven series in the 2022 NBA playoffs. Boston enters with a desperate position in Game 2 as a result, with the Celtics again playing at home at TD Garden. Marcus Smart (thigh) is questionable to play for the Celtics. Khris Middleton (knee) and George Hill (abdominal) are out for the Bucks.

Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET in Boston. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the 4.5-point favorite at home, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Celtics odds. Before you make any Bucks vs. Celtics picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the third full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Celtics, and just locked in its NBA playoff picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Celtics vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -4.5 
  • Bucks vs. Celtics over-under: 215.5 points 
  • Bucks vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -200, Bucks +170
  • MIL: The Bucks are 4-2 against the spread in the playoffs 
  • BOS: The Celtics are 3-2 against the spread in the playoffs

Featured Game | Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks

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Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee’s offense is prolific, ranking in the top five of the NBA during the regular season by scoring more than 1.14 points per possession. The Bucks are keyed by defense, however, and the numbers are tremendous. Milwaukee leads the NBA playoffs 2022 in defensive efficiency, giving up only 93.5 points per 100 possessions. Opponents are shooting only 29.9 percent from 3-point range and 39.3 percent from the floor against Milwaukee, and the Bucks held the Celtics to 0.89 points per possession in Game 1. The Bucks are elite at keeping the opponent off the free throw line, yielding only 15.3 attempts per game in the playoffs, and Milwaukee dominated the glass in Game 1 with a 29.1 percent offensive rebound rate and a 78.8 percent defensive rebound rate. 

Boston also committed a turnover on 18 percent of defensive possessions, and Milwaukee completely erased the Celtics in transition. In the regular season, the Bucks were No. 2 in the league in defensive rebound rate (74.7 percent), with top-five marks in free throw prevention and points allowed in the paint. Milwaukee was also above-average in field goal percentage allowed and fast break points allowed over a large regular season sample.

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston is elite on defense. Even in a Game 1 loss, the Celtics held the Bucks to exactly one point per possession, a tremendous figure, and Milwaukee posted only a 50.9 percent true shooting mark. In the regular season, the Celtics led the NBA in defensive rating, allowing only 106.2 points per 100 possessions. Boston also led the league in several key categories, including 2-point accuracy allowed (49.7 percent), 3-point accuracy allowed (33.9 percent), field goal accuracy allowed (43.3 percent) and assists allowed (21.6 per game). 

Boston also ranked in the the top five in points allowed in the paint (42.5 per game), blocked shots (5.8 per game), and second-chance points allowed (12.5 per game), with top-10 figures in free throw prevention and fast break points allowed. The Celtics are also effective on offense, ranking in the top 10 of the NBA in efficiency during the regular season, and Boston has plenty of shooting. Boston was No. 2 in the league in free throw accuracy (81.6 percent) during the regular season, with top-10 marks in 2-point shooting (54.7 percent) and 3-pointers per game (13.2).

How to make Bucks vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 226 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Celtics vs. Bucks Game 2 pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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