Thursday, May 19, 2022

Best early bets to win Super Bowl LVII, plus 10 NFL rookies who could have instant impact this year

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

We’re officially just one week away from the release of the 2022 NFL schedule, so to celebrate, I thought I’d use today’s newsletter to try and guess the time and date for all 272 games being played this year. Just kidding. I don’t have time for that; I have a Cinco de Mayo margarita to get to. 

Although I didn’t guess every game on the schedule, we’ve still got plenty in store for you today. Not only will we be ranking the 10 rookies who are most likely to have an instant impact, but we’ll also be making some early Super Bowl picks!

As always, here’s your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. All you have to do is click here and then share the link. Alright, let’s get to the rundown. 

1. Today’s show: Best bets to win each NFL division and the Super Bowl now that the draft is over

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With free agency mostly over and the NFL Draft now in the books, that means we now have a good idea of what each team’s roster is going to look like for the upcoming season and because of that, we decided go ahead and make some early Super Bowl picks for 2022. 

For today’s podcast, Will Brinson was joined by R.J. White and Tyler Sullivan, and not only did the trio make Super Bowl picks, but they also made their picks for how each division would shake out. 

The one thing I learned from listening to today’s show is that I should have forced myself onto the podcast because NONE of them picked the Bengals to win in it all. Here’s a look at their early Super Bowl picks.

Top pick to win Super Bowl LVII

My take: If I had to bet one of these three options, I’d probably go with Brinson’s. I’d stay away from the Rams because we haven’t seen a repeat winner since 2004. I’d stay away from the Chargers because they always find a way to Charger things up. On the other hand, the Chiefs have been to four straight AFC title games and seem like they’re good enough to get back to the Super Bowl despite losing Tyreek Hill

Best value pick to win Super Bowl LVII

My take: If I had to bet one of these three options, I’d probably go with the Colts. Indy somehow won nine games last year despite having Carson Wentz at QB. I feel like Matt Ryan is worth at least two more wins, plus he knows what it takes to get to a Super Bowl. He also knows what it takes to lose a Super Bowl after building a 28-3 lead, but that’s another conversation. 

If you want to know who they picked to win each division, be sure to click here so you can listen to today’s podcast. You can also watch today’s episode on YouTube by clicking here.

2. Nine moves that need to be made now that the NFL Draft is over

Just because the NFL Draft is over doesn’t mean the rest of the offseason is going to be boring. As a matter of fact, we could see a lot of excitement over the next few weeks and that’s because there are plenty of big free agents still out there and there are also plenty of players who could get traded before we get to training camp.  

With that in mind, Cody Benjamin created a list of nine moves NFL teams need to make now that the draft is over. Here are the top five on his list: 

  • Lions should trade for Baker Mayfield. “Is he that much of an upgrade on Jared Goff? Maybe not. Have the Lions said publicly they’re OK with Goff under center? Yes. But after failing to add to the position in the draft, Detroit is sorely lacking juice here. Mayfield, while still a mid-tier option, is younger, cheaper and brings far more of the moxie Dan Campbell seemingly prefers.”
  • Panthers should trade for Jimmy Garoppolo. “Garoppolo doesn’t have many clear paths to a starting job, so unless he’s ready to take a pay cut or the 49ers are ready to pay him over $25 million to sit behind Trey Lance, Carolina is the last logical destination.”
  • Ravens should trade for Deebo Samuel. “The 49ers rightfully won’t surrender him for a mild offer, but if Deebo stays firm in his desire to relocate. … Baltimore is a perfect fit, not only because their run-based offense could incorporate Samuel in motion, or because Lamar Jackson needs more weaponry following Marquise Brown’s trade, but because Deebo would get his apparent wish to be closer to home in South Carolina.”
  • Packers should sign Odell Beckham Jr. “While a Rams reunion would benefit both sides, he was headed for a mini-standoff as soon as they paid big bucks for Allen Robinson. Why not pivot to Green Bay, his supposed runner-up suitor during the 2021 season? Aaron Rodgers has a new target in Christian Watson, but Beckham would help alleviate pressure on the rookie.”
  • Colt should sign Julio Jones. “Indy just spent a second-rounder on Alec Pierce, who should give Matt Ryan a pair of big-bodied possession targets alongside Michael Pittman Jr. Who better to mentor the young jump-ball specialists than Julio, who just happened to spend 10 years catching passes from Ryan in Atlanta?”

If you want to see Cody’s full list of moves that need to happen now that the draft is over, then be sure to click here

3. Ranking the five biggest reaches of the 2022 NFL Draft

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Apr 28, 2022; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Chattanooga guard Cole Strange is announced as the twenty-ninth overall pick to the New England Patriots during the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft at the NFL Draft Theater. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this week, we ranked the five biggest steals of the draft, so now it only makes sense to rank the five biggest reaches. These are the players who got selected a round or two before most experts thought they were going to go off the board. 

The list of the five biggest reaches was put together by CBSSports.com’s Tyler Sullivan, who is a noted Patriots homer, so I know it hurt his heart to put a Patriots pick at the top of his list. With that in mind, let’s check out his five biggest reaches:

  • Patriots pick OL Cole Strange (29th overall). “The biggest head-scratcher from Round 1 was the New England Patriots taking UT-Chattanooga guard Cole Strange at No. 29 overall. While talented and expected to start at left guard out of the gate, the consensus on Strange was that he was more of a Day 2 prospect who would hear his name called around the end of the second round or beginning of the third.”
  • Giants take WR Wan’Dale Robinson (43rd overall). “Robinson was drafted just a bit earlier than expected when New York selected him with the 43rd overall pick in the second round. He was CBS Sports’ WR15 and the 105th-ranked prospect overall, so it seemed like he was earmarked to be a third-rounder. Part of the reason Robinson was projected to go in that range is due to his size as he stands just 5-foot-8.”
  • Texans select WR John Metchie III (44th overall). “Houston traded up to No. 44 overall in the second round to draft Metchie. While the Alabama product is a solid player, he wasn’t expected to come off the board this early on Day 2 and is recovering from a torn ACL suffered in the SEC Championship game. Not only was taking Metchie at this spot a bit too high, but there were a number of other pass-catchers on the board with higher ceilings like Georgia’s George Pickens and Skyy Moore out of Western Michigan.”
  • Saints pick CB Alontae Taylor (49th overall). “New Orleans does need a cornerback, but Taylor was looked at as a mid-round prospect rather than someone plucked in the second at No. 49 overall.”
  • 49ers select RB Tyrion Davis-Price (93rd overall). “On his final big board of the top 300 prospects, CBSSports.com draft analyst Chris Trapasso listed Davis-Price as the 276th-ranked player and to likely be a priority undrafted free agent. By those standards, the LSU product coming off the board in the third is eye-popping.”

For a full explanation on why each of these guys made the list, be sure to click here

4. 10 rookies who could have an instant impact 

At some point, we’ll eventually run out of NFL Draft stories to share in this newsletter, but as you can clearly tell, that won’t be happening today. Not only did we rank the top-five draft reaches, but we’re also going to rank the 10 rookies who are most likely to have an instant impact with their new team. 

CBSSports.com draft guru Chris Trapasso waded through all 262 picks in this year’s draft to come up with his list, so let’s take a look at the 10 guys who are most likely to have an instant impact. Surprisingly, the top player on Trapasso’s list was also the player on the list who was drafted the lowest. 

1. WR Skyy Moore, Chiefs (54th overall pick)

2. DT Logan Hall, Buccaneers (33rd overall pick)

3. EDGE Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) (second overall pick)

4. OG Zion Johnson, Chargers (17th overall pick)

5. WR Christian Watson, Packers (34th overall pick)

6. CB Kaiir Elam, Bills (23rd overall pick)

7. S Kyle Hamilton, Ravens (14th overall pick)

8. WR Chris Olave, Saints (11th overall pick)

9. RB Breece Hall, Jets (36th overall pick)

10. WR Garrett Wilson, Jets (10th overall pick)

One other thing you’ll notice is that the No. 1 overall pick in the draft (Travon Walker) didn’t crack the list. To check out the full explanation for each of Chris’ picks, be sure to click here

5. Tom Brady set to become first QB to start a game in four different countries

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Austin Powers might have been the original international man of mystery, but I feel like we should now give that title to Tom Brady and that’s because he’s likely going to break several international records this year when the Buccaneers head to Germany in November to face the Seahawks

Here’s a look at the records Brady could break

  • First NFL QB to start a game in four different countries. Brady has already started at least one game in three different countries, which is tied for the NFL record. Over the course of his career, Brady has started one game in Mexico, two games in England and hundreds of games in the United States. Once he takes the field in Germany, he’ll become the first QB to start a game in four different countries. 
  • Brady could become the first QB to WIN a game in four different countries. Starting a game in a different country is easy because all you have to do is show up. To set this record, Brady is actually going to have to beat the Seahawks in Germany. Brady has wins in three different countries, which is tied with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jay Cutler for the NFL record. Cutler and Fitzpatrick both won games in Canada, England and the United States. 
  • Brady could set the NFL’s international passing record. Brady has thrown for 952 yards in his international career and now only needs 258 more to break Blake Bortles‘ record for most career passing yards outside of the United States. Bortles has started five career international games, so it’s not a total surprise that he has the record. 

By the way, Brady is undefeated in international games (3-0), but Tampa Bay has never won outside the country (0-3), which means something is going to have to give in November. Also, in other Tom Brady news, the seven-time Super Bowl winner just admitted that he might have actually fumbled in the controversial “Tuck Rule Game,” and you can see his hilarious video by clicking here

6. Rapid-fire roundup: Jerry Jones involved in car crash

It’s been a wild 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

  • Cowboys owner briefly hospitalized after car crash. Jerry Jones was taken to a hospital in Dallas on Wednesday night after being involved in a car crash. According to multiple reports, Jones was able to return home last night after suffering minor injuries. Jones’ son, Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones, said his dad is “all good.”
  • Packers become first team to get their first-round pick under contract. Devonte Wyatt was the 28th overall pick in the draft, but he became the first first-round pick to sign a contract Thursday. According to multiple reports, Wyatt has agreed to terms on his four-year, $12.86 million rookie deal. 

  • Kyle Van Noy could soon sign with Chargers. The former Patriots linebacker could soon be headed to Los Angeles. According to NFL.com, Van Noy is meeting with the Chargers today and if all goes well in the meeting, he’ll likely end up signing a contract out west
  • Ex-Colts star says Matt Ryan reminds him of Peyton Manning. New Colts QB Matt Ryan got some high praise from Reggie Wayne this week. The former Colts receiver, who is now Indy’s receivers coach, compared Ryan to Peyton Manning, “It makes me throw up how much he reminds me of Peyton so much,” Wayne said. “He’s the epitome of a leader. In meetings, he’s vocal. He’s trying to get connections with the receivers, trying to get extra as much as possible.” Manning led the Colts to two Super Bowl appearances and one Super Bowl win during his time in Indianapolis, and I’m guessing the Colts would be more than happy if Ryan does the same thing. 
  • Magic Johnson enters bidding to buy the Broncos. The NBA legend could soon be an NFL owner. Johnson has joined a bidding group for the Broncos that is led by 76ers co-owner Josh Harris, according to Sportico. There are currently at least five prospective buyers trying to purchase the team, which could eventually be sold for more than $4 billion. 

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