Dynasty value tends to be stickier than redraft value. Development requires patience, after all, and a short-sighted mistake could haunt you for years to come.
So what does it take to move the needle on a player’s Dynasty value? A higher degree of confidence, for one, but I’ll note that my choices are less a reflection of my own feelings than the way things actually are. It’s simply the case that Jarred Kelenic’s Dynasty value has suffered from his repeated failures to break through with the Mariners. I do advise patience, but partly because his stock has diminished to the point you have little other choice.
I’ll also note that I’m much more confident in my assessment of pitchers than hitters given the current state of offense in the majors so far. With the deadened ball, the widespread use of humidors, and the possible weather effects on both, I don’t know how differently May and June will play from April. I don’t feel like I can take any hitter’s numbers at face value yet. Too many new variables were introduced at once, leaving track record as one of the few controls. I give deference to it in this first edition of the Dynasty Stockwatch, putting more of my focus on pitchers.
Players who’ve gained the most value
Prospects who’ve gained the most value
Michael Harris, OF, Braves
AA: .319 BA (113 AB), 4 HR, 10 SB, .918 OPS, 8 BB, 26 K
Harris placed fairly high on real-life rank lists, but he didn’t generate much enthusiasm in Fantasy after homering just seven times in 374 at-bats last year. His home venue played a part, though. Now, in a more neutral environment, he’s already more than halfway there. It makes it easier to see his baseball instincts, which it turns out are off the charts. He’s like a bundle of energy, capable of contributing in almost every facet, and remarkably, he has reached base in all 27 games he’s played this year.
AAA: .317 BA (101 AB), 11 HR, 1.093 OPS, 15 BB, 22 K
The prize of the Matt Olson trade is regarded mostly for his defense, but he did show considerable power last year and has seemingly upped his offensive game again with improved plate discipline, both the strikeouts and walks. His numbers may be inflated somewhat by a favorable home environment, but the 24-year-old is peaking at the right time and is now an integral part of a loaded catcher crop in the upper minors instead of just an also-ran.
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Andrew Painter, SP, Phillies
A-: 0-1, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 20 IP, 7 BB, 40 K
Dynasty leaguers are generally skeptical of pitchers drafted straight out of high school for the same reason real teams are. The amount of development required for them to reach the majors presents too many opportunities for things to go wrong. The minors may not be able to contain this 19-year-old for long, though. Drafted 13th overall last year, Painter has been straight-up fire so far, piling up whiffs with a high-90s fastball that’s bolstered by his 6-foot-7 reach. The arsenal is well developed, and the command is top-notch as well.
Kyle Harrison, SP, Giants
A+: 0-1, 2.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 19 IP, 8 BB, 42 K
The 20-year-old is built for strikeouts, boasting a fastball that reaches the high 90s and has an optimal vertical approach angle for today’s game. It’s a bat-misser in its own right, but he also has a wipeout slider and a changeup that pairs well with the fastball. The big concern is control, but it’s showing improvement so far at high Class A, where he’s struck out 21 of the past 34 batters he’s faced.
Adael Amador, SS, Rockies
A-: .326 BA (92 AB), 6 HR, 3 SB, 1.005 OPS, 18 BB, 13 K
Though Amador showed well in Rookie ball last year, the range of possible outcomes remained too wide to form any firm opinions. That range appears to be narrowing at high Class A, where his power has played beyond expectations and his plate discipline has been nothing short of stellar. Granted, it’s the hitter-friendly California League, and his small build will continue to fuel doubts about his power potential. His hit tool could make up for any shortcomings there, though. Plus, he’ll eventually be playing at Coors Field, right?
Players who’ve lost the most value