Wednesday, July 6, 2022

2022 NBA Draft lottery odds: Rockets, Magic, Pistons have best chances of landing No. 1 pick

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USATSI

It used to be that the team that finished the season with the worst overall record would have the highest draft odds, and would be guaranteed of a top-four pick, but that isn’t quite the case anymore. The league smoothed the odds in 2019 in an attempt to curb tanking, and now the league’s three worst teams record-wise all have equal odds of landing the top pick. The team with the worst overall record is now guaranteed a top-five pick. 

Five different teams will have at least a 10% chance of getting the top overall pick this year, while nine teams have will have at least a 20-percent chance of landing in the top four. In other words, there’s a lot of optimism heading into the lottery, which is scheduled for Tuesday, May 17. It is on that date that teams will officially find out where they pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, which will take place on June 23. (Find our latest mock drafts here.)

In the meantime, here’s a look at the lottery odds for the 14 teams that will likely be participating. The Hornets, Pelicans, Spurs and Hawks could move out of the lottery if they win twice in this week’s play-in tournament and advance to the first round of the playoffs.

Houston Rockets

20-62

.244

52.1

14

Orlando Magic

22-60

.268

52.1  

14

Detroit Pistons

23-59

.280

52.1  

14

Oklahoma City Thunder

24-58

.293

48.1

12.5

Indiana Pacers 

25-57

.305

42.1

10.5

Portland Trail Blazers

27-55

.329

37.2

9.0

Sacramento Kings

30-52

.366

32.0

7.5

New Orleans Pelicans (via L.A. Lakers)

33-49

.402

26.3

6.0

San Antonio Spurs

34-48

.415

20.3

4.5

Washington Wizards

35-47

.427

13.9

3.0

Portland Trail Blazers (via New Orleans Pelicans)

36-46

.439

9.4

2.0

New York Knicks

37-45

.451

7.1

1.5

Atlanta Hawks

43-39

.524

3.8

0.8

Charlotte Hornets 

43-39

.524

3.4

0.7

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